Thursday, October 18, 2012

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Jump in, the water is fine. I'm amazed that this story continues. Bold stories of economic recovery in housing, banking, industry, etc. can only mean that we have a economy that is roaring forward. Over the past week I have been sitting around scratching my head and in complete and utter confusion at what are the FACTS of a slowing economy, which many are suggesting that we will soon re-enter a recession and those who are reassuring that stocks will reach an all-time new high by the end of 2012.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF (international monetary fund), warned that we are already dangerously near a world downturn into a recession. Stanley Fischer, once second in command at the IMF and now the Bank of Israel governor, predicts that Europe is nearing a flashpoint and that government stimulus cannot meet the expected returns that investors demand. Here is the bottom line, when investors finally recognize that we are in a recession they will abandon stocks and no level of stimmulus will suffice to keep world economies from certain bankruptcy.

Rodgers, Nenner, Hussman, and many other conservative economists have warned of the pending slowdown pointing to a perponderance of facts showing a slowdown. Even ex-General Electric CEO, Jack Welch was harshly criticized by the economic world when he suggested that such a dramatic drop in unemployment seemed that that fiqures were rigged for up-coming elections.

So with the continued stimmulus at  $40 billion monthly scheduled to continue indefinately, stocks rise even though the ecomonic fundamentals are worsening. The FED is making promises to investors that the FED can't keep.

There is not enough PROFIT from corporations to pay for the rise in the price of the stock. By deflating the dollar though, you can make it appear as though profits are rising. The drawback is that everybody's "more dollars" doesn't buy as much. (read Road to Serfdom)

I watch carefully as the present market impacts my purchase in TIP and BND, setting a stop-sell to limit losses. You will remember that I also purchased a gold trust IAU. IAU has now declined 1.58%, but I will hold IAU as a hedge against deflation of the dollar and/or up coming war in the middle east.

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

 

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