Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Some of you are wondering if this is my sad Christmas, with me sitting in a corner drinking my hot cocoa all by myself. The trades I began in November did not turn out the way I had expected. A whole list of bad news stories kept the market down, with my selected stocks going up one day and down the next.

What kept me secure were the RULES of TRADING. I had already determined that I would lose no more than 6%. And at one point, all the selected stocks neared negative 6%. The market regained its footing and my selected stocks rose once again.

I patiently sat by, watching and waiting. FDO (Family Dollar) seemed to only move up in price, only to fall again and again. Believing FDO to be overbought, I sold FDO before occuring losses. DLTR (Dollar Tree) seemed to rise and fall with every news report on the prevailing outlook for Christmas sales. Although DLTR had some significant gain, I felt it best to sell before Christmas just in case the report of Christmas sales fell short. Even if the report of Christmas sales is up for 2011, it is likely that a week after Christmas, the market will have long forgotten the Christmas market glow. I do think that DLTR is a good LONG-TERM investment, but I would prefer to re-purchase  DLTR after the stock has declined a bit.

I have chosen to keep CATM (Cardtronics ATM) which is an international company, making agreements with banks world-wide to support their banks with their ATM products. This stock grew 60.9% in 2011, and with good reason; it has solid financials and will likely continue it move upward in the year ahead. Because of that, I will keep a STOP-SELL on CATM at 6% below it's daily close price. This is a fairly tight STOP-SELL but will insure that a significant downturn will be sold. As we move into 2012 I will purchase more of CATM being careful to sell all of CATM, rather than lose the core investment.

For instance: An initial purchase of $10,000 of CATM grows 20% with a STOP-SELL set at 6% below its present gain; this means that the least I will make in a sudden decline in the market is 14% of $10,000 or $11,400. When I have seen that CATM continues to TREND UPWARD, I will purchase another $10,000, making my total investment $22,000. Once again, I will set my STOP-SELL at 6% below the closing price of CATM. If, at this time, CATM suddenly declined, CATM would sell at 6% below its present price or for $20,680. (Remember my CATM was purchased in November and is now valued at 14.88% at the end of December. I will want to patiently wait until CATM grows to 20% before adding to the investment.)

As you can see by the above example, that the orginal $10,000 with a 6% STOP-LOSS, put $600 at -risk; but now, after adding an additional $10,000 to the orginal $10,000 for a total of  a $20,000 invesment, you put none of your investment at-risk and even gaining $680 in this scenario if the market suddenly turns downward. 

Assuming that CATM continues to grow even another 20% in 2012, with the $22,000 in CATM stock, the investment would grow to $26,400 for a profit of $6,400. Again, in the market you can assume nothing and must constantly adapt to the changes. The market can be better than you ever dreamed or worse than you ever imagined. ALWAYS USE STOP-SELLS and be prepared to get out of the market.

STOCKS

FDO - Family Dollar  was SOLD with a 1.72% gain
DLTR - Dollar Tree was SOLD with a 4.93% gain
CATM - Cardtronics ATM was not sold and presently has a 14.88% gain

                              The average gain over the three stocks being 7.1%

This does fall short of the 10% to 12% I had hoped to gain, but I am celebrating this Christmas. In two months, I was able to see a 7.1% gain in the fall trading season. Time will vindicate or incriminate your decisions in trading the market. For now, I have every reason to celebrate.

The MPT (MODERN PORTFOLIO)

If you are following this blog, I hope you are reading ALL of the ideas. Harry Markowitz, the father of the Modern Portfolio Theory and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics is clearly a lot smarter than most of us.

Someone suggested that by putting 50% of your money in the ETF called, BND (a general bond fund) and 50% of your money in the EFT called, VTI (for US stock portfolio) you could beat the market and follow the MPT. (Modern Portfolio Theory)

Here is how we test that idea. Go to www.etfreplay.com and select BACKTEST ETFs. Then select: BACKTEST EFT PORTFOLIO. Under EFT 1 enter: BND and under EFT 2 enter: VTI. Go to the weighting column and give them equal weight or 50%. You will see the graph showing that without your management of only these two ETFs, your return for 2011 would have been 4.8%. In today's market, that return is admirable, especially when you consider that most portfolios have lost profit this year.

Let me give your two other EFTs to add to this portfolio and let's see how these additional ETFs will backtest. Add under the symbol column, TIP and VNQ giving each of the now four ETFs equal weight at 25%.  Your portfolio for 2011 would have returned 8.3% or almost double of 4.8% with only BND and VTI.

MAXIMIZING YOUR RETURN

By using these four ETFs (BND, TIP, VTI, & VNQ) you can see good results with little personal management. You can, however, maximize your return with minimal management by selling any ETF that moves below the 200 day simple moving average.

For example: Go to www.yahoo.com and then select FINANCE, at the top left you will see GET QUOTES, enter the ETF symbol... in this case VTI and hit the yellow button. In the left hand column that is blue, look for CHARTS and select INTERACTIVE at the bottom of the chart you now see, select 1M for one month. The chart will show VTI for a one month period. Always select 1M, so your Simple Moving Average will be correct in relationship to the price. Go to the top of the chart selecting TECHNICAL INDICATORS and then select SMA and set the SMA to 200. This is the 200 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE. Now look at your chart. You will see the SMA marked on the chart. If the price is above the 200 day SMA, buy the EFT. If the price of the ETF moves below the 200 day SMA, sell the ETF.

On this date, the price of VTI is below the 200 day SMA, don't buy it. One other caution, the price of the ETF must remain above the 200 day Simple Moving Average for 30 days before purchasing the ETF. (Note: The price of VTI is moving close to the 200 day moving average, but needs to move above it and hold there for 30 days before you purchase VTI.) As of today, VNQ, a real estate investment ETF recommended here, moved above the 200 day moving average only 5 days ago, stay out of VNQ until it stays above the 200 day moving average for at least one month. Both BND and TIP prices are above the 200 day SMA and would qualify at this time for an investment. It is also advised by the IVY PORTFOLIO that after you buy one of these EFTs, you hold them for at lease a month, even if they fall below the 200 day moving average for a short while. If the price is continuing to move above the 200 day moving average, stay in the ETF for another month.

This is a simple portfolio to manage and without a lot of trades, can be very profitable. Most importantly, any ETF can be sold just like a stock. Unlike bonds, that you have to sell to someone else, or mutual funds that can only be sold at the end of a day, an EFT can be sold when you want to sell it.

Consider simpliflying your portfolio by using BND and VTI.  If you want to improve the return, add VNQ and TIP. Manage the four EFTs in your portfolio by removing an EFT that falls below its 200 day simple moving average. Having managed this portfolio by using the 200 day SMA would have returned 10.5% over 2011 and out performed the majority of the Financial Advisors recommendations.

CHANGES TO 2012 PORTFOLIO

Because of the volatility in the market, the Modern Portfolio will be my consideration as we move further into 2012. 1/3 in cash, 1/3 in stocks, 1/3 in bonds is the ideal. The Modern Portfolio theory suggests 50% in bonds and 50% in stocks, but one can modify the portfolio as best fits the investor. I would want 1/3 in BND and TIP and 1/3 in VTI and VNQ when their price is above the 200 day simple moving average. The final 1/3 kept in cash will be used for some stock purchases, but returned to cash after trades. The concern is that the EuroEconomy will affect the U.S. economy and move us closer toward a recession. Keeping the gains and retaining the core investment will be the goal.

(note: the above information is for entertainment only and not to be used for investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Ho! Ho!, Just like a Yo Yo! Maybe Micheal Jackson knew something about the stock market too! I haven't blogged over the past week because there really hasn't been anything to report.

I want to get "Out of the Market", but have been waiting for the place to jump off. You will remember that in the first part of November, I purchase three stocks in hopes that the "Santa Rally" would soon be near; but upon the roof there rose such a clatter, I had to take a look at my DOW index to see what was the matter. (FDO, DLTR, CATM)

The market still seems obsessed with the EUROTRIBE and that is unlikely to go away. So stocks have fallen and rose again, and again, and again. I don't really see an end to this and it is indicative of a market getting ready to collapse. Traders are indecisive. They are just like me, desperately needing to get in, but really worried about getting out if there is a sudden long term downturn.

Well I did enter the market hoping for a 10% to 12% return. It is clear, that I will not hit that goal this year. So now, the goal is to get out before December the 24th. Next week, I will be looking for that special moment, hoping that CATM and DLTR will "YO YO" back up and I can capture a decent return for my efforts.

Return on CATM and DLTR as of today:

• CATM up 8.70%
• DLTR up 4.59%

I really have no reason to weep over these kind of returns, remember a year in a Certificate of Deposit might return 1.20%. Even a 4% return can beat some bonds over a year period. Though I really haven't watched these stocks very closely, I recognize the potential volatility of the market and I am ready to get out.

Let's look at the chart below and learn:

On this chart, look for two horizontal green lines, these represent a trading range. The top green line represents RESISTANCE because unless the market trend is strong, it is not likely to push above this top green line. The BOTTOM green line represents SUPPORT because unless the market trend is weak, it will likely not move below this line. In between these two lines is a TRADING RANGE. Given that there is no major good news or major bad news, the DOW is likely to remain within the TRADING RANGE. (Remember LIKELY, because nothing guarantees that the DOW, in this case, must stay within the TRADING RANGE.The political deadlock at the end of Friday moved the DOW into the red at the end of the day. In a last minute vote before Christmas, the politicians agreed to extend the payroll tax cuts.This should help the stock market rise on Monday.) The market is irrational and will act as it wants, but there is a strong likelihood that a tepid market, as we have, will continue in a sideways movement. NOW NOTICE the light greed diagonal lines. The light green diagonal line nearest the center right represents the last uptrend of the DOW. The light green diagonal line nearest the outside edge on the right, represents the present uptrend in the DOW. Good, I think you are begining to understand. Since Thursday, there has been an uptrend in the market. (represented by the black box moving upward) The EXPECTATION is that the UPTREND will continue until it meets RESISTANCE at the top green line.... somewhere around 12,300.

Another indicator of interest is the RSI indicator at the very TOP of this chart. This chart shows whether a stock is oversold or overbought. Note: when you see the stock price go down, people are selling to get out, so the RSI indicates an oversold; when there is a strong uptrend, too many people are buying stocks and the RSI will show an overbought. (see stockchart.com >chartschool) The point here is that the RSI indicator shows, that today, the DOW is a bit oversold. This makes me feel comfortable in waiting a bit longer. (Remember, there are no gurantees when using charts because you are seeing what already happened, so you can only draw approximations of where you think the market is going.)

There is another line worth mentioning and maybe even more important than the TRADING RANGE between the two green lines. It is the squiggly blue line between the two green  horizontal lines and is called the 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. So the 50 day moving average is critical and the DOW has to remain above the 50 day moving average.

In the DOW's present UPTREND, the top green horizontal line at 12,300 is the point at which the market could return to a downtrend.  Though the market is not moving STRONGLY UPWARD, I would expect the market to continue on an uptrend through Monday & Tuesday. I will see Monday and Tuesday as selling opportunities for DLTR and CATM.

Now all of this is rather FOOLISH TALK, because we don't know what the market will do. Israel might bomb IRAN, at which time the market is certain to NOSE DIVE. Europe might disband the EURO, and again the market would surely nose dive. This is simply part of TRADING STOCKS, live with it! Don't put all your (eggs) investments into one basket. Keep some in cash, some in real estate, some in gold, some in bonds. Most importantly, reduce your loss by using STOP-SELLS.

Knowing the importance of getting out of these two stocks next week and understanding that the market needs to remain in an UPTREND, I do look to a higher power than me for the benevolent blessings to come.

(Note: the above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used as financial advice of any kind.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

One of the more joyful moments is when the market turns in your favor. Still, you can't trust your emotions, even though you have them. The market alone is the sole determinate of market price and trend. The market is not rational; when you think it should go up, it goes down and when you think it should go down, it goes up.

There are, though, certain seasonal trends that improve your chances to take a profit. The market is presently EXPLOSIVE, volatile. I would not enter the market at this time and believe that we have two more weeks of a postive market trend, which is not enough time to carefully invest in the market. STAY OUT OF THE MARKET!

MY RECENT TRADING HISTORY

On November 9th, I purchased DLTR (dollar tree), FDO (family dollar), and CATM (cardtronics). All three started with a bang and returns of 2%, 3%, and 6% and within days had each sunk below 5% in the negative by Thanksgiving weekend. I had placed a 6% stop-sell and was convinced that all three would end up selling, leaving me with a 6% loss.

If you have been following this blog, you will see that I operate by a set of carefully crafted rules. For example: (1.) only buy stock with a proven uptrend; (2.) buy selected stock when in a temporary dip; (3.) determine how much you are willing to loose before making a purchase; (4.) Learn the behavior of a stock during its one day period and purchase when the stock is typically lowest during its day trading period; (5.) place a STOP-SELL on the stock when you buy it, set for the amount you are willing to loose in the trade (what you are betting on is your judgment); (6.) be patient and wait, even if the stock is going down. (7.) when your stock rises 1 time above the percentage of your STOP-SELL, move the STOP-SELL to half the percentage above the purchase price. (you set the stop-sell at 6% below purchase price, when the closing price rises to 6% above the original purchase price set your new STOP-SELL at 3% above the original purchase price of the stock. As the stock continues to rise, move the STOP-SELL behind the closing price by 3%. [you can also use a  TRAILING-STOP which follows the closing price automatically]). (8.) Ideally, you want to stay in the market as long as the stock will continue its upward trend. A more volatile stock may mean setting a higher percentage. It the stock moves up or down 3% at each market turn (up or down), you may need to set the percentage at 12% because you are taking a greater risk for purchasing a stock that grows more quickly or may fall more quickly. (9.) The most important rule is: DON'T LOSE MONEY!

PRESENT RETURNS ON STOCK INVESTMENT

                                                      BUY            FRIDAY              TODAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                    $58.8193     gain   .68%            gain  1.72% SOLD
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                      $79.20         gain   .53%            gain  5.23%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)         $24.81          gain 9.42%            gain 10.11%

You will remember that in my last blog, I wrote that I wanted to sell FDO as soon as possible. It was always tepid, even though climbing some 7% in the past week, when it hit a particular price, it would fall back down. (this is called resistance) Some analyst believe that FDO is OVERBOUGHT. That means too many people own it and it is over-valued. This can be a learning lesson for me and you, in that, if a stock doesn't show MOMENTUM, get out of it! By the end of the day FDO closed with only a .31% gain. By following my intution and selling at the high during the day, my portfolio gained 1.72% .   The 1.72% gain is after brokerage fees, so I am happy that I didn't have a loss in my portfolio and have exceeded the amount I would have made from a Certificate of Deposit. (Excepting that it only took a month to gain the 1.72%)

AMAZING INVESTING FIGURES

Harry Markowitz is a Nobel Economics Prize winner and considered the "FATHER OF MODERN PORTFOLO THEORY".  As I understand it, his portfolio is divided into half, with 50% going into VTI (Vanguard Total Stock ETF) and 50% going into BND (which is the Vanguard Total Bond ETF). For a man who is so intelligent but has such a simple portfolio, one has to ask: "What does he know that I don't?"

In the past few blogs, I have explained why this market is different than any other. The last 12 years, the DOW has remained flat, growing only .83% annually and when offset by CPI (inflation) the DOW has declined. When considering that Financial Advisors have their clients into investments that DO NOT BEAT THE DOW INDEX and fall below the DOW index some 10%, 20%, even 30% it is no wonder that almost everyone's portfolio is beaten up.

USE CARE BEFORE PURCHASING AN ETF IN THE MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO

Care should be used when entering the Markowitz Portfolio. Make sure that the current price of the ETF is ABOVE THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE or don't buy it. If the ETF moves below the 200 day moving average, sell it! Re-purchase the ETF when it rises above the 200 day moving average.

I am presently invested in BND, but I have a stop-sell on the ETF just in case it start falling. Treat ETFs just like stocks. Don't buy a BOND CERTIFICATE. There are concerns that there is a BOND BUBBLE, so be cautious here. In this volatile season of the market, always protect yourself with a STOP-SELL. You will not regret it later.

(Note: the above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used in anyway as financial advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

The only thing that makes me more nervous than a downtrend in the market, is an uptrend in the market. A 490 point gain in the DOW is nothing short of unusual. It shows that there is A LOT OF MONEY wanting to go into the market.

I wrote in an earlier blog about how the market is simmular to a beach ball floating on the water. You can pressure it under the water, but when released, it will spring into the air in relationship to the pressure used to keep it under the water. The bad news here is that after the ball shoots into the air, it will have a tendancy to fall back into equilibrium... that is the surface of the water. So these "good times" are not going to last for long. I am hoping we will get one more day because I am not happy with the characteristics of FDO (family dollar) and want to sell that stock as soon as possible.

Let's look once again at my selection of stocks and their performance to-date.

                                                  BUY                 ON MONDAY           YESTERDAY          TODAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                $58.8193            loss 4.12%                         loss 3.34%       gain   .68%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                  $79.20                loss 2.75%                         gain   .53%      gain 2.81%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)     $24.81                 loss .32%                          gain 2.01%      gain 9.42%

This is the pace of the stock market. The market is so volatile that the slightest bad news will demolish any gains you might have. How the market will rise is also unpredictable. You can't afford to let your emotions rule you. FOLLOW THE RULES and you will find success. If you are undisciplined, impatient, and greedy, choose another profession because you are going to lose a whole lot of money.

Inspite of the impressive gains on my selected stocks, I am very nervous. I know what comes next, several days of downtrend. At this point I need to consider how I want to leave the market. Putting the trailing-stop or stop-sell nearer the closing price will do the trick and I can leave the maket with some profit.

Again, leaving the market too early because of your emotions also shows a lack of personal discipline. I will carefully watch the market until Friday, hoping that the remainder of the week results in my stocks growing just a bit more.

Remember, ALL MY STOCKS WERE DOWN LAST WEEK 5%. Adding that 5% to the present gains shows how much the market has grown this week. CATM has grown a remarkable 14.42% in the past 5 trading days. DLTR has grown a remarkable 7.81% over the past 5 trading days. I can't imagine the market keeping this pace much longer, but the present view is that Black Friday and Cyber Monday have produced results out pacing the analysts expectations and that the remainder of the Christmas Season will produce outstanding sales.

For all the excitement, one still has to remain aware that Italy, Spain, and Greece are still near collapse. All of the promises to underpin the EuroEconomies will likely falter in the near future (by February or March), so I would be careful not to get too excited by increased temporary Christmas hiring.

I am still recommending: STAY OUT OF THE MARKET!

(note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be use for any investment purposes.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Oh, how emotions change when your stocks go up. Yesterday, I was in hell and today I'm moving into heaven. Remember, these are just feelings. You can't trust them.

Investing requires more than just feelings; it requires a WELL THOUGHT THROUGH PLAN. Any plan must have rules. Rules will get you out of the investment before you are hurt too deeply by major financial losses. Rules will also keep you in the game, long enough to see your investment bring a profit. This is important, especially at this moment of Stock Market History.

Since the end of 1999, the stock market has gained only .83% per year, over the past 12 years. Look at the graph I've provided. If you have used a BUY and HOLD method, you have lost money. Let me tell you why. About 87% of the financial advisors & brokers can't beat the DOW index, and they often fall short of beating the index anywhere from 10 to 20%. This is PATHETIC!

The PIMCO BOND FUND founder, Bill Gross, sent his investors a letter of apology. This is unheard of.   Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund, said it will take years for Europe to recover from its current economic woes and investors should not count on any short-term fixes.

He said that ‘debt-driven growth is a flawed business model’ and the older, developed countries are now paying the price for issuing too much sovereign debt. (Just like us in the U.S. *my words) And he contines, financial markets and society no longer have an appetite for it.’

He predicted that global growth will likely remain stunted, with interest rates artificially low and investors continually disenchanted with returns that fail to match expectations. He suggests that with 2% inflation and 2% growth of the market, the best one can expect is 0%. So he is saying that a 2% return on your investment over the coming years would be an at best scenario. (Go to the PIMCO website to view his letter.)

So with such poor results, the future doesn't look that promising. There are no guarantees when it comes to investments in stocks, you can loose substancial amounts of money. But a carefully though-out plan may result in 6%, 8%, or even a 10% return. And that is the reason for this blog. To help you develop your own trading style, that can consistently return you money and diminish your losses.

Back to my STUPID CHRISTMAS RALLY STOCK INVESTMENT. Here are the results of the day:

                                               BUY                        YESTERDAY                 TODAY
FDO (Family Dollar)            $58.8193                              loss 4.12%                       loss  3.34%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)              $79.20                                  loss 2.75%                       gain  .53%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs) $24.81                                    loss .32%                       gain 2.01%
                                                                                                               

Bottomline, STAY OUT OF THE MARKET. The market is extremely volatile and with the Europe Factor, the market could collapse at any moment. I am fortunate that CATM gained over 6% in the past two days. After calculating my brokerage costs for CATM, I have a gain of 2.01%. For information sake, if it costs me $3$to buy and $3 to sell, I enter the total brokerage costs to buy and sell at $6. When I look at the percentage of return or loss, I am looking at costs of brokerage fees deducted from that percentage. So the LOSS shown above, includes my brokerage fees added and the GAIN shown above includes my brokerage fees deducted.

DLTR unexpectedly gained 3.23% today. FDO gained a little over 1%, which is still a remarkable increase. Of course, the problem is that when you are down 5%, you have to see your stock gain 10% to provide a 4% profit, because some of that profit is going to pay brokerage fees. The more you invest at one time, causes the brokerage fee to be very nominal.

I started investing with only $2,000 and the $10 fee to buy and $10 fee to sell wiped 1% to 2% off of my initial profit. With discount brokerages like OptionsHouse, the total fees to buy and sell combined are reduced to only $8.

(note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Let me be clear, STAY OUT OF THE MARKET! My portfolio is largely in cash, about a third of the entire portfolio is in BOND FUND ETFs. (TIP and BND) By checking out the side-bar, you can see ideas on how to diversity your investment. I utilize a method of putting 1/3 into STOCKS, 1/3 into BONDS, and 1/3 into CASH. Because I actively manage my portfolio, I may invest more into either STOCKS or BONDS if they are returning higher profits.

The problem faced today by most investors is that STOCKS are incredibly volatile with daily swings plus or minus 200 points on the DOW. Though the DOW has slowly climbed over the past three months, world news of impending financial defaults and high unemployment continue to push us toward impending recession. Though unemployment remains high in the U.S. and our economic growth patheticaly low, our politicians keep spending like there is no tomorrow and do nothing to reduce the current debt.

Many people, and myself also, have moved into BONDS. But our government has made sure that BONDS are at an all-time low. With a glut of money flowing into BONDS, we have created a BOND BUBBLE. Our economy is so stagnant and stocks so volatile, that BONDS seem the only place to be. But when the market heats up enough to drive inflation just a bit higher, BONDS will seem worthless at their present rate. A large investment company notified their BOND clients, that they could be moving some of the BOND investment into STOCKS in the days ahead; suggesting that their BOND portfolio would no longer be a pure bond portfolio, but a mix. The BOND COMPANY already understands that if the market heats-up, they cannot remain profitable.

Of course, my suggestion is to make careful investments into stocks and bonds, placing a 6% stop-loss or trailing stop behind the initial investment. Such an investment is to only be made when there is a clear up-trend. (see the other pages in the sidebar for instructions and read through this blog)

Like most investors, I am constantly looking for investment opportunities. Some of the opportunities will result in profits, others in losses.

SECRET STOCKS

There really are "secret stocks" out there. Most are unknown or not very flashy, but consistently give the investor solid returns. Richard Shaw noted 4 stocks that outperformed the market since 2001. Here is part of his article:

How many individual stocks met or exceeded the performance of the best ETFs and mutual funds over the 10 years and 10 months from the beginning of 2001 through October 31, 2011? The answer is four -- only four.

They are:

• Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)
• Plains All American Pipelines (PAA)
• Ventas (VTR)
• Magellan Midstream (MMP)

The measure they exceeded was to have an equal or higher total return in each of the calendar year periods from 2001 forward than the median total return of all equity ETFs and no-load equity mutual funds that were in existence over the entire period.

Now you need to continue to do your own research to determine the long-term viability of these stocks, but these so called: "secret stocks" could prove to viable addtions to your stock portfolio. I am not invested in these stocks at this time and I would likely wait until I see where the market is headed by February of 2012 before investing in any of these stocks, but they are on my STOCK RADAR.

About My Stock Investment

In mid-November, I invested in three stocks, hoping to catch a Christmas Rally. I knew the stock market was dicey and stocks volatile, but the three stocks I had chosen should have been a "shew-in". What I couldn't have predicted is the effect that our politicians and Europe would have on the trend of the market. I invested into three stocks: CATM, DLTR, and FDO. CATM is an ATM company with an incredible outlook and had already returned a profit of about 28% for me, so reinvesting in a winner as it returned to an uptrend in October seemed very comfortable to me. Dollar Tree and Family Dollar are both "dollar stores", with Dollar Tree out-performing the analysts estimates again and again. Dollar Tree and Family Dollar have had offers for buy-outs. Dollar Tree is wanted by Walmart, but Dollar Tree has resisted all offers for a buy-out. Dollar Tree also returns a lot of cash because it is not heavily leveraged. There are no reasons for these three stocks to not return 6 to 8% by the end of the year.

Since repetition is the price for learning, you have heard me say: The market doesn't care what anyone thinks the price of a stock should be, it is the market that determines the price of a stock. So THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT, regardless of anyone elses opinion.

Knowing that my investments were covered by a 6% trailing-stop, I have worried little about them. I do watch these three stocks and as of last Friday, all three of them neared the 6% trailing-stop. FDO had been slowly declining in price since I bought it and as the market slid downward last week, I was certain that FDO would sell. Remarkably, FDO gained in price as the overall market moved downward. Remember, the market is always right.

I was glad that I had RULES. Rule one, determine how much money you are willing to loose. I had determined 6% was as much as I could loose, but was hoping for a 6% gain. Rule two, place a stop-sell or trailing-stop on your investment. This limits your loss to the 6% should the stock turn downward. Rule three, be patient. It takes time for a stock to grow.

So, today, I am just thankful that I am less in the RED than I was last week.

                                       BUY                        TODAY
FDO (Family Dollar)            $58.8193                                           loss 4.12%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)              $79.20                                               loss 2.75%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs) $24.81                                               loss   .32%
                                                                                                                

How do you say, "I'm thrilled with my losses?" But considering that the entire losses on CATM was nearly erased and that the dollar stores gained over 1% today, I am enthusiastic. What is really needed is a week of the same kind of advancement in the stock market. Now that would make me estatic. 

I will keep you informed about my progress in these stock investments. A week of good news could well pull me back into black. 

(note: the above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used in any way as investment advice.) 

STAY OUT OF THE MARKET!

Today's Market
Dr Invest

I know you have been following my blog and wondering if such a dramatic drop in the market today, caused my stocks to sell. Here is the remarkable part, FDO (Family Dollar) actually grew in value today. Remember the phrase, "IRRATIONAL MARKET". FDO had been declining ever since I purchased it. It is "irrational" that when the market falls 300 points, only rising a little at the end of the day, that FDO gains .85% .  My emotions would have moved me to sell FDO after the first week.

All of the stocks that I purchased have remarkable fundamentals and should have grown 12 to 15% in a normal market. DLTR (Dollar Store) declined only .36% finishing the day with my loss of 4.50%. CATM (Cardtronics ATM) declined a whopping 5.05% today, but because it had shown a profit, my day ended with a loss of only 1.69%.

The reason you develop TRADING RULES is so you disengage your emotion. Experience teaches you that a 6 or 8% loss can EASILY be regained. Take your loss and come back another day when the market is better. When I entered the market, I KNEW THAT IT WAS VOLATILE. I didn't invest my total nest egg into the market, only enough to make a small profit, if I reached the 6% goal before the end of the year. Even if my stocks sell at a 6% loss, I know that I am not going to loose a lot of money.

If the market is destined to collapse, falling 30 to 40%, I'll re-enter the market when it bounces off the bottom. Better yet, I'll use a reverse ETF and catch a little profit on the way down. But always, I will use the same TRADING RULES to protect my investment.

Today was BAD. STAY OUT OF THE MARKET! I am amazed that I survived the day. Professional investors want to "run for the doors", but they must show their clients why they are paying for a broker. They have to stay in the market, even in the face of bad news with BLACK FRIDAY nearing. I believe that institutional traders saw a buying opportunity today to pick up the "dollar stores" and gain a post Black Friday bounce.

Trading requires experience, understanding, and favor from someone greater than you. That is why in times like these, I find PRAYER a positive comrade at the trading table.

(Note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used to make financial decisions of any kind.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

My Investments

I haven't been very happy with this week. I've just been keeping my nose above the water. The Market continues its UPs and DOWNs and for this week, it has been mostly down. NEVER FORGET THE RULES OF YOUR TRADE! No matter how you feel, follow the rules.  I have a STOP-SELL set for each stock at 6% below the purchase price. It really doesn't matter where the market goes, 6% is what I have determined as my loss. If my losses exceed 6%, the stocks will automatically sell.



Several times, as the market plummeted, I wanted to sell my stocks and get-out. But when you let your emotions rule your trades, you will have no rules. After a week of a collapsing market, my selected stocks have remained above the 6% stop-sell. FDO dipped 5.08% below the purchase price and I thought today would be the day it would sell at a 6% loss. Recent news of FDO (Family Dollar) out performing the market and FDO raising its expectations above the analysts projections kept FDO alive. Even in today's falling market, FDO actually grew.

Reviewing the three stocks I selected, I am convinced that they are quality stocks. But remember, the market doesn't care what I think or even what are the evident facts. The market sets its price and you live with the price set by the market. The market is the sole determinate of whether it will move up or down.

For instructional purposes, we have had some terrible things happen this year and the market simply barreled through ignoring the facts; other times in 2011, the only reasonable direction for the market was up, but it went down. If I could understand this market behavior, I could be a millionaaire in short order. Throw into the market volatile one day swings of 300 points on the DOW and you have to ask yourself, how can anyone stay in the market.

By setting the loss to 6%, you stay in the market long enough to identify the real trend of the market. I have seen FDO, DLTR, and CATM rise 2, 3, even 4% in one day. I can sleep at night, because I know that 6% is all that I will loose if the market remains ugly. If it remains ugly long enough, we will revisit 10,000 on the DOW and I will re-purchase FDO, DLTR, and CATM and enjoy the ride up.

Back to reality here:

                                                                                   BUY                                                   14 DAYS LATER
FDO (Family Dollar)              $58.8193                                          loss 3.90%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                $79.20                                              loss 4.16%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)   $24.81                                              gain 3.54%
                                                                                                                 

Maybe, just maybe, I can stand one more day of loss. Remember, this morning, FDO was at a 5.08% loss. Climbing the paltry 1.25% kept FDO alive, even if for only one or two more days.

Listen carefully to my recommendation on how you can make money in the market. STAY OUT! The market is irrational right now, don't buy into the market. The market will return to a more sensible trend, but just not anytime soon. WARNING, STAY OUT!

(Note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as finanical advice.)

Your Real Potential for Long-Term Growth

by Dr Invest

What is your real potential for long-term growth in the stock market?  If you don't understand the dangers of BUY and HOLD, you will get stung in today's market. This doesn't do away with a BUY and HOLD STRATEGY, but unless there are real fundamental changes we are unlikely to see a return to the good old days.

To survive the days ahead you are going to need to learn how to mange your own investments.  Over the past 12 years, the DOW has moved from 11,400 to 12,400 today. That is an average of about .83% gain per year.  Today, a CD can return 1.10% per year.

                                      Look at the HORIZONTAL LINE

What I am Illustrating is that over the years, until around 1999-2000, the market has given the long-term investor the promised returns of 10-12%, but in the last 12 years, the market has changed. The PROMISE by INVESTMENT ADVISORS of an 8, 10, or 12% return is impossible over the long-term and IS A LIE!  You no longer can invest money and expect it to increase if you are using the LONG-TERM BUY and HOLD INVESTMENT STRATEGY.  At this point, this kind of strategy is a BUY and HOPE STRATEGY. If you invested into the DOW index fund in January of 2000, the maximum return would have been only 10% over a 12 year period or .83% per year.

Until our own national debt problem is resolved, we will not be able to break through the DOW plateau. And most importantly, we will never see the long-term gains we once had. The market has changed and investment advisors looking backward to average in 50 years of "good times" are blind to where our market really sits at this moment.

From a technical perspective, the above DJI appears to be consolidating and either the market will break-up  or break-down after the consolidation period. We had a similar consolidation pattern from 1975-85, a twenty-year period. So, this present period of consolidation could last another 8 to 10 years. If you are a baby-boomer, this could be a real baby-bummer, prolonging the period you will need to work before retiring.

The Market this Week

All markets are EXTREMELY VOLATILE at this moment. There is a possibility for a brief rally until the end of December or the first part of January. The ongoing fears of the EURO-DEBT continue to make the stock market choppy. There is a BUBBLE in BONDS and unlike the preceding years, BONDS are loosing money.

Although some head-way has been made in an agreement for austerity in Greece and Italy, there is little hope that either country can successfully meet the goals set by the EURO-TRIBE. So the expectation is that around FEBRUARY of 2012 the ongoing drag of Europe will pull the world into a double-dip recession.  Look at the chart below:
   
Here are a chart and a graph showing the PIIGS' and the United States' indebtedness -- more specifically, their public debt and 2009 deficit relative to GDP.

Just glancing at the chart, and remembering that the PIIGS are among the weakest economies in Europe, it seems that the United States isn't in great shape either. It's just on par with Spain, whose economy is struggling.

The difference with the U.S. is that the DOLLAR in comparison to other currencies is still strong and the DOLLAR is considered a safe-haven if you want to move from a weakening currency to a stronger currency like the DOLLAR. Greece and Italy are about equal in debt, but a closer look shows Italy worse-off. Both Greece and Italy are close to collapse. I am hoping for a solution, but risking your life savings in hopes of a solution is unwise.

In Austin, Texas is a little investment firm called, Hoisington Management.   Here is what you need to enter on your address bar:  <http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/hoisington_economic_overview.html>   or just click on the label enclosed.  When you arrive at their webpage, select: Quarterly Review and Outlook, Third Quarter.  With 4.5 BILLION under management, I think they have cutting edge research.  READ the THIRD QUARTER OUTLOOK for 2011. You get the benefit of a quality research paper without the $60 per month fee.

Where should I put my money in the short-term?

I am invested in three stocks, FDO, DLTR, and CATM. (Family Dollar Store, Dollar Tree Stores, and Cardtronics ATM. I am also invested at this moment in TIP and BND which are ETF bond funds. TIP is the best performing ETF bond fund at this time.

Make no mistake, I have STOP-SELLs placed on each of these stocks and bonds. If a sudden down turn occurs in the market, these stocks and bonds will sell. So my investments are actively managed. (look up STOP-SELL on investopedia) My only risk is with FDO, DLTR, and CATM. After a week of being invested in these stocks, I am not fully satisfied with the tepid growth in these stocks since their purchase, excepting CATM.

I am following specific trading rules and will not leave the market until the 6% stop-limit is reached or a profit is taken. My fears and emotions have no influence on the rules of the trade.

What is important, is that NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BE IN THE MARKET. The present market is too sluggish to be certain of a profit. If the market does turn-down in February of 2012, you could loose 20, 30, or 40% of your portfolio.

My Suggestion, buy Certificates of Deposit

Go to GOOGLE ADVISER and select: CDs. Enter in the amount you would like to put into CDs and the length of the investment. Google will show you the best prices for CDs.
<https://www.google.com/advisor/uscd?bsp&s=1&kw=best%20CD%20rates&group=GenericRadio&q=best+cd+rates#!search&Issuer_S=__any__&Normalized+Term+Length_R=0_1001&Deposit_D=100000&CD+Type_S=Normal&Zipcode_S=78626&si=0&start=0>

This will help you select the best CDs at this time for a CD ladder. As mentioned, don't put more than $100,000 at any banking institution for FDIC purposes. Even if you get less interest, it is worth it to limit your CD to $100,000.  Depending on your investment, divide it into 8 parts (placing 6 of those parts into CDs) putting part into CDs and keeping part in a brokerage account to invest should the market begin to rise. I would suggest that you have 3, 6, and 12 month CDs initially. If we are going into a double-dip recession, we will revisit the lows of 2008. When that journey downward is complete, it would be a good time to reinvest into the market.


(Note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used to make any finanical decision.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

My Investments

My investment continues its UPs and DOWNs. I have a STOP-SELL set for each stock at 6% below the purchase price. Below are the three stocks I have chosen during what I hope will be a Christmas Rally. If my losses exceed 6%, the stocks will automatically sell and I'll drink my hot chocolate in a corner by myself; but if I get the 6 to 8% return I hope to get, I will put another pice of cake on my plate and giggle a loud, Ho! Ho! Ho!

Back to reality here:

                                                               BUY                                        NINE DAYS LATER
FDO (Family Dollar)              $58.8193                                         loss 2.66%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                $79.20                                             loss 1.20%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)   $24.81                                             gain 6.85%
                                                                                                                2.99% Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of 2.99% in the overall stock porfolio after trading fees. I had expected better from the DOLLAR STORE STOCKS. As the market moved higher today at the report of increased retail sales, I was surprised the the Dollar Store Stocks did not dramatically rise. As you can see, I am no where near a 6% loss on any one stock, but my safety net remains in place just in case the market turns ugly.

(note: The above information is not to be used for any finanical advice, see your personal financial advisor before making any decisions regarding your finances.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Welcome to the stock market. This week the DOW has fallen almost 400 points in one day and in the last two days, returned about as much. If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.


Back to reality here:

                                                                                                 BUY                                FRIDAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                   $58.8193                        loss 1.06%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                     $79.20                           gain 1.03%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)        $24.81                           gain 8.38%
                                                                                                   8.35% Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of 1.35% in the overall stock porfolio after trading fees. I want you to journey with me in this trade during the end of 2011. By following my blog each day, you will sense what it is like to wait for a stock to become profitable. All of my stocks gained today, but previous losses had to be absorbed. FDO or Family Dollar Store has not yet broken even. The goal is to see all of the stocks become profitable.

I am not disappointed with how the week ended, but hope at we move toward Christmas, the Dollar Store stocks will ignite and meet my goal of earning 6% before the end of the year on the total investment I have made into stocks.

With the fears of the Euro collapse abating because of recent political resolutions in Italy and Greece, it seems that the way is open for the market in the U.S. to move upward.

(note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used to make finanical decisions.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest
Today the market returned a very shallow bounce of a little less than 1%. The stock I chose didn't blossom, but in such a pathetic market I really didn't expect more. Greece and Italy have proven a drag to any upward momentum in the market. The overall negative feeling that Greece and Italy have created in the market has elevated the VIX. (the fear index)

With the likelihood that Italy's debt will wreck the Euro and a default is only months away, the fear is that the world economy will slip into a double-dip recession. I still have enough conviction about a Christmas Rally, not to sell and run. Of course, most importantly, that conviction is only 6% deep because if my purchase price of these stocks fall 6% below the purchase price they will automatically sell.

Because repetition is the price of learning and your success in trading is based upon RULES, the first rule is: "Don't Lose Money!" The second rule is: "Never buy a stock without determining how much you will allow yourself to loose!" (You do that buy placing a STOP-SELL on the stock you purchased.) You want to maintain CONTROL of your LOSSES and your PROFITS. Remember that successful trading is about money management.

Most Financial Advisors DO NOT ACTIVELY MANAGE YOUR INVESTMENTS, but actively manange their FEES and PROFITS from your investments. I learned of a court case in which a financial advisor was sued for pointing a client to the financial instruments which returned the highest fees to the advisor. The client's claim was the Financial Advisor has a fiduciary reponsibility to represent the client's interests first. Ney, my friend. The court ruled in the favor of the Financial Advisor, thus re-affirming that the Advisor could move the client's money toward any instrument he wished eventhough it negatively impacted the client with higher fees. Listen to me, your Financial Advisor can charge you management fees eventhough his management of your money had a negative result. Is there another profession that you can enter, where you can damage someone financially and still charge them 2% annually for managing their life savings? (2% of $500K=$10,000 annually. 200 clients X $10,000=$2,000,000 annually. Average number of clients for a financial advisor is 200-500. Now you know the rest of the story. In fairness, office, salespersons, accountants, secretaries, and licenses come out of the 1 1/2 to 2 million. Finanical and Wealth Consultant's salaries can range between $90k to $120k. A senior consultant can make more depending upon the clients he has acquired. )

By using a BROKERAGE ACCOUNT, selecting your own investment instruments, and contolling your losses, you can avoid the FRONT-END and REAR-END fees and QUARTERLY fees charged by an Advisor. Over a ten year period, even a small savings of $200k that is managed by an advisor can amount to $43,799.00. Double the $43,799 to $87,597 if you have a nest egg of $400k.

Back to reality here:

                                                      BUY                THURSDAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                 $58.8193              loss 1.83%    
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                   $79.20                 loss 1.75%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)      $24.81                 gain 5.16%
                                                                                       1.58% Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of  1.58% in the overall stock porfolio.

The return not particularly remarkable after four days, but still afloat after one of the largest one day drops in 2011.

(Note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and should not be considered financial advice.) 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Look, I know this is what you have been waiting for. Now that shame has come upon, I humbly acknowlege what everyone already knows: "The market is not predictable."

If you have been following my blog, you will know that I purchased three stocks: FDO, DLTR, and CATM. Today was a SLAM as the DOW sunk 400 points and barely climbed upward toward the end of the trading day.

That is the very reason, that I use a 6% stop-sell whenever I buy a stock... so I can preserve my capital.

                                                         MONDAY    TUESDAY         WEDNESDAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                        lost .08%      gained   .08%        lost 2.41%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                         lost .56%       gained 1.43%        lost 1.43%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)      gained 1.08%      gained 8.22%        lost 3.78%
                                                                .44% gain           9.73% gain       7.62 loss  2.11%  total gain

As of today, I have gained a total of  2.11% in the overall stock porfolio.

I admit, this is exciting. How will this investment end? Will I see a recovery by the weekend or will my stocks sell? As an investor, I have a conviction that the market will rally... but only  a 6% conviction. Another 3% loss and my seasonal investing will be brought nearly to an end.

This is how I have chosen to trade, I follow my rules regardless of what I think the market will do. If the market falls more than 6%, my stock is sold.... if the market continues to rise, my stock is hold.

(Note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be considered as investment advice.)