Today's Market
by Dr Invest

I'm thinking the next month is going to be painful. I made an investment in stocks with a yet undetermined outcome. My view is that my positions in stocks will sell at a loss after hitting my stop-sell. I will feel the pain when my stocks sell, but I still hope that the promise of a fiscal cliff compromise will move my stocks upward.  Instead of sitting on gains, I find myself about even. The bond ETFs have continued upward, gold has climbed some but still remains in the red, stocks are now in the red. For the short-term, I feel the pain. And though twisted like a contortionist, I patient hold my position waiting for the uptick.

Outcomes

There really is nothing positive at this moment. If you were planning to buy something, stay away from the market right now. The Fed stimulus will likely prop up the market after the fiscal cliff. WMT and RTH will likely regain their footing if they don't fall enough to trip my stop-sell. YTD gains for WMT is still at 10% and WMT will continue their profits in 2013.

We could only hope for a good old fashion recession and 2013 could be the year for it, but remember Bernanke is committed to keeping the stimulus pumping regardless the cost. So we can expect a stimulus led bull market or an uncontrollable bear market that will tear at the core of your investments.

So, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. I continue to wait for a new burst of gains and hope it comes soon.

Dr Invest

(note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)


 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Ho, Ho, just like a yo yo! That is just what the market has been doing, the yo yo! One day my investments are screaming upward, the next day my investments are in free fall. Although the market climbed in 2012, the entire year has been... well, like a yo yo.

Though the S&P has risen a little over 13%, all the gains were nearly erased once in this year, and a second time slid toward all the gains being erased a second time. Bernanke on the ball, quickly promised zero interest and on-going stimulus until either unemployment returned to normal levels or inflation began affecting the economy.

So here we sit in one of the world's most volatile markets, wondering when the next axe will fall. Nothing is predictable; the market is growing too quickly to stay-out and falling too quickly to say in. If you don't invest, you lose 12%; if you do invest, you could lose 30%. And worst of all, nothing is predictable. Expected market cycles are almost non-existent.

Today's Gains

Today, I saw gains across the board. Everything was green, excepting my investment in IAU (a gold trust). There is really nothing to report. With the on-going political wrangling, the market remains vacillating and volatile.

I remain hopeful that financial winds will blow in a new direction, bringing eventual gains. I don't believe that central banks can keep pumping the market indefinitely and that there will be a "payday someday".

If you are to stay invesed in the market, protect your investments with a stop-loss and be prepared to get out of the market in a serious downturn.

(note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

I hate carping on my government, but today my dentist was telling me about the affordable health care tax of 2.3% on all dental devices. (all medical devices as well) So when you need that dental crown, your dentist pays a tax into Obama care and that tax, whether you are rich or poor, is passed on to YOU! Some how, I am not liking this new government plan.

FSA or Flexible Savings Accounts, to be used for heath care, permitted a total contribution of $5,000 annually that was tax deductible. Now that tax deduction will be capped at $2,500 and on the remaining $2,500 YOU WILL PAY THE TAX. Geeze, we need to get that money out of the hands of the extraordinarily wealthy. Listen, the wealthy don't need FSA, nor do they need insurance. When you make a million a year, do you really need an FSA? If your employer pays for your FSA or Health Savings Account, you will be taxed for $2,500 of that whether you are rich or poor.

In the past, you could take-off a deduction for large medical expenses you paid during the year. In 2013, the threshold for medical deduction rise from 7.5% to 10% of your total salary....whether you are rich or poor you will pay the additional taxes. What is worse, you will pay the extra taxes while you are sick and at the most vulnerable financially. If you are a senator or congressman, and your are reading this, you should do more than hang your head in shame, you should sponsor a bill tomorrow morning to rescind this tax on the sick.

All of these taxes amount to billions of dollars to the government to pay for what will be one of the poorest health care systems in the world. Two of my friends, who are medical doctors, have already shared with me just a few of the rules and restrictions facing them as the implement the new obamacare plan. And the paperwork..... OMG. There are reasons government is inefficient and those who have longed for a new America are going to get their CHANGE THEY CAN COUNT ON..... while the government gets their dollars.

BACK TO THE INVESTMENTS

In my experimental portfolio of $10K, my total gains increased today, eventhough my overall loss for WMT was not erased. WMT started strong, but slid lower as the day continued... but still keeping .65% of its gains.

As long as the fiscal cliff remains, the opportunity for significant gains for WMT remains slim. If agreement is reached on the fiscal cliff, WMT could climb 3% to 6% before the end of the year. RTH gained 1.25% as the retail sector climbed in hopes of a political conclusion to the fiscal cliff.

Conclusion

Sadly, there is really no real change in our economy. The government keeps stimulating the economy; the market moves unpredictably and erratically; and the ever increasing rise in the market makes it almost impossible for investors to stay out of the market.

So moving cautiously and keeping a stop-sell nearby is almost a must whether investing in BONDS or STOCKS. My gold position in IAU is down 4.45% but the gold position  was entered with an expectation of a rise in gold prices over the next nine months. The present portfolio position should produce decent returns before May of 2013, but being alert is important at this time. In spite of government intervention, the markets could collapse at ANY MOMENT. I definitely would not lose more than 6% on any stock or bond and would consider the 6% loss a gain if the market fell 30%.

What I am saying is if you lost 6% and the market fell another 24%, you would follow the falling stock with a stop-buy until it once again began to climb. This would put you in an excellent position to regain your 6% loss and add another 24% in gains as the market recovered. Don't be scared, be prepared.

(Note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)




 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Today a headline read, "Don’t Be Fooled by the Fed: Stimulus Is a Sign of Dysfunction, Not Opportunity". Stimulus is the course we have taken for a number of years because our economy needed to be propped-up. Listen, you don't have to have a doctorate to understand that if you need support beyond yourself, you aren't making it economically. This is the sign-of-the-times that many 40 year-olds are moving their families back-in with their parents because they can't make it any longer financially. Where will the U.S. government move when they can't make it any longer?

I really have no favorites between Republicans and Democrats, both seem equally inadequate in their governance; but if you only knew how the Obama administration is scheming at this moment to raise everyone's taxes and increase the debt ceiling, it would make you pale. Eliminating mortgage interest as a tax deduction is on the table... now who does that affect? Anyone who owns a house. Taxing company provided insurance as a benefit is another idea floated. A bevy of other taxes are being considered and all of them fall not only on the backs of the wealthy, but you too. Discussion of a capital gains tax seem logical, until you discover that the same capital gains would affect everyone with a 401K and an IRA, including the middle class trying to save for retirement. And then there is the consideration of Inheritance Taxes. Yes, the rich would pay their fair share, but many loopholes would have to be plugged. The middle class can't afford the tax lawyers to ferret out the loopholes and would pay the inheritance taxes, while the wealthy pass their wealth on to their families via trusts, limited partnerships, and other tax avoidance instruments.

On of the reasons corporations have moved abroad is to shelter their companies from one of the highest corporate taxes in the world. The U.S. is second, only behind Japan in the corporate tax rate. So why do business in the U.S.? The Progressives or New Socialists are excited about all the taxes they are going to raise so equitable programs can be implemented to pull the poor from their despair. Sadly, the middle class business men will be saddled with the new burdensome taxes to pay for the raised debt cap so the U.S. can continue to do business.

The Realities of the Fiscal Cliff

Boehner has made the first step toward eliminating the fiscal cliff by offering to raise taxes on those making over 1 million annually. Though it is not the deal the President wanted, it opens the way to tax the super rich. 241,000 people make over 1 million annually. This initially seems like a lot of people, but only represents a little less than 1%. Total tax projected to be gained is $3.6 billion.

What is not projected the is will of the wealthy to take advantage of the myriad of tax loopholes before 2013. To understand this, you have to think about the super-wealthy utilizing their profits to find new opportunities for generating new income streams (PROFIT). So they might redirect their profit to build an new company and hiring new employees or taking over another failing company they believe they could make profitable. To keep from paying Obama's new tax realities, the super-wealthy has to place their profits into investments that will shelter their income. Most, though, will likely move their income else where, so they can keep their money working for them.

Walmart is presently looking at purchasing an 80% stake of Turkish retailer Migros Ticaret AS, another rumor is that Walmart was looking at purchasing Hostess Brands Inc. The Chinese believe that Hostess will have a significant market in China and Indo-china, so does Walmart. Corporations and individuals are considering how to shelter their money and as usual, the governments plan to outsmart business men will result in them collecting less taxes and moving more jobs outside the U.S.

Investment Positions

The fiscal cliff has affected my conservative investment position. Care must be taken at this time to insure the best outcome. As mentioned in a past blog, I suggested placing a stop-sell 1 1/2% to 2% below the closing price of WMT and RTH.

If you didn't follow this advice, you are in the negative right now because both WMT and RTH have fallen. I have set my own personal stop-sell at 5% below the closing price and after falling nearly 4%, I have to ask myself if I want to take a 3% loss or move my stop-sell back to 5% below the purchase price. This is where judgment comes into play. For sure, I will be watching closely how the market responds to Boehner's offer to raise taxes on the rich.



With good news, WMT can quickly recover along with RTH. Even though gains have been recorded by retailers, questions remain on whether the fiscal cliff will dampen spending by the consumers, sending the economy into oblivion. To insure a viable economy, the FED has begun QE-3 with the warning that if the politicians fail to come to a timely agreement even the 40 billion a month may fail to keep markets viable. It is almost certain the politicians will find compromise and the stimulus will spur the economy and a rise in the market valuations. NOTE: MY BLOG on APRIL 22, 2012

In my blog, I show how underlying inflation increases costs of doing business, how businesses raise prices to the consumer, and how increased profits increase valuations. We are seeing a rising S&P, when we should be seeing the collapse of the S&P. No one doubts that if the FED's stimulus stopped, the economy would immediately fall into a recession.

While the safest strategy would be to say out of the stock market, the FED is punishing anyone buy stocks (because they are buying stocks and competing with the investors), and rewarding anyone buying stocks. Now it is doubtful that they can continue this stimulus forever, but 14 economies are presently stimulating their markets. It seems that world banks have agreed to all stimulate their economies together until all their debts are erased.  The problem is that if debt is not eliminated by governments, the stimulus would have to continue forever.

For the moment, it seems that central bank stimulus will keep stocks climbing and bonds weak. My guess is that at some point, the economy will weaken and slip into a recession. I would see that happening the first part of 2013, but it could happen at anytime.

For now, I am cautiously watching the fiscal cliff. If the market likes the political outcome, we will see the market revived at least temporarily.

Now all of these are only guesses on my part and the better part of wisdom is guard your investment. I am hoping that you have already sold WMT and RTH, but don't lose more than 5% on these stocks, you can always repurchase in January if the market appears to be improving.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used a investment advice.)
 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Sunday evening, I began to pour over investment opportunities after the dramatic increase in consumer spending over Black Friday. I'm already invested in WMT (Walmart), but there is a great ETF that gives me some diversity called, RTH.  Market Vector's Retail holds a number of great consumer stores like Target, Home Depot, Walmart, Amazon, CVS, Lowe's, Walgreen's, Costco, TXJ compaines, and Mc Kesson Corp to name a few. Following RTH in a downtrend for several days, I placed a STOP-BUY on RTH set at $44.45. Eventhough RTH fell today .22%, my position still remains positive. At this time, we have 2/3s of our stock position purchased.

For those uninitiated to this blog, I am using $10,000 as an experimental portfolio. In May, I moved 1/3 of my $10,000 portfolio into BONDS, buying equal shares of TIP and BND with $3,333. In August I purchased $1,111 of IAU, a gold trust, for my CASH position. In mid-November, I was seeking a STOCK position and made a $1,111 purchase of WMT (Walmart) which fell 5% and tripped by STOP-SELL. Convinced that WMT (Walmart) would regain its position, I placed a STOP-BUY on WMT, following the falling price of WMT with a BUYING STOP. (This means that if the price stops falling and begins to climb, WMT would be re-bought.) Walmart did climb and was purchased with the STOP-BUY at $70.00 a share. WMT now sits at $70.83. Desiring a stronger position in retail stocks this Christmas, I placed a STOP-BUY on and ETF called RTH as mentioned above, so that WMT and RTH reserve $2,222 of my STOCK POSITION.

REGRETS

My original intention of purchasing the DOLLAR STORE STOCKS like FDO, DG, and DLTR was a mistake on my part. These stocks have performed with great strength. Part of learning is admitting when you missed such opportunities. Once a stock has risen so strongly, when you buy it, you can't be sure if it has already peaked; so instead of chasing stocks, you need to capture them when they are oversold. FDO, DG, and DLTR still have some momentum, but my gut feeling is that it is too late to join the party.

BUYING OPPORTUNITIES

So I am looking for BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. CATM (Cardtronics) was beaten down by investors when it missed its target for the 3rd quarter, and missed it only by pennies; still the investors punished the stock for failing them. CATM is still a solid company with great growth both in the U.S. and abroad. Since mid-October CATM has fallen 23.70% and with truly no reason excepting investor disfavor. Now CATM is begining to move side-ways and to consolidate. These are signs to me that a significant buying opportunity is presenting itself.

Remember, you can't time a stock! So if you buy CATM, be prepared for a loss as well as a gain. I will continue to watch the market, but over the next few days I will watch closely CATM. Likely, I will set a STOP-BUY at around $23.00. If CATM is going to restrengthen before the end of the year, it will likely break through $23.00, continuing its climb to much higher. If CATM is to continue a decline, it will likely do that as well and no purchase will be made of CATM with the STOP-BUY. CATM can often move 3% to 5% per day. This means it is quite volatile, but if in an uptrend, you can see strong gains.

As always: Protect your gains with a STOP-SELL; If you buy a stock, determine how much you are willing to lose and sell the STOP-SELL below your purchase price; you are the sole determinate of how much you lose, so chose wisely. Finally, understand that we are in the worst of economic times; never in the history of our economy have the indicators been worse. Conservative economist believe that we are presently in a recession, hidden only by quantitive easing. The QE will continue but a collapsing economic situation can out pace the FEDS will to buy us out. All this debt will turn into INFLATION and we are likely seeing an inflated and bloated stock market .... climbing not because of profits but because of inflation already figured into the market. If you have more specific questions ask me by writing *#drinvest@mail.com and remove the first two characters from the email address.

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in anyway as investment advice.

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Perhaps it is only speculation, but Walmart has been beaten down for the past week and posed a buying opportunity. WMT had fallen to a low of $68 and then began to climb higher. I placed a STOP-BUY on WMT for 69:25 on Thursday evening. The theory here, is that WMT had began an uptrend after being beaten down and the upcoming BLACK FRIDAY sales would boost Walmart's profits.

As predicted, WMT was purchased today as Walmart surged in price, ending at $70.20 and gaining .95 in price. Gain was 1.37% interest. At least for Friday, the newly acquired position in WMT paid off.

The next stock position will be a return to CATM. You will remember that I have already lost 5% on my purchase of CATM when Cardtronics fell to the STOP-SELL. Like Walmart, I will use a STOP-BUY to purchase CATM if it moves up. I think it will move up and having been severely beaten down, its climb could be quite dramatic.

That's about it. I'm looking for a stock position before the end of the year and need at least gains of 8% or more on each position. I have been using a $10,000 portfolio as my example, investing 1/3 in a BOND POSITION, 1/3 in a CASH POSITION, and 1/3 in a STOCK POSITION. In the bond position I have purchased BND and TIP; in the cash position I have purchased IAU, a gold trust, and I am keeping the remaining 2/3rds of the cash position in cash; in the stock position I am presently holding $1,111 in WMT and wanting to invest the remaining $2,222 in other stock positions.

What has complicated investing in 2012 is a failing economy, propped up by government stimulus. Clear signs point to a recession with business slow down and the world economy in a slump. Bernanke admitted that little remains in his tool box to fix the economy, especially if politicians push the economy over the fiscal cliff.

Let me make this clear, this is an economy you can loose money in. The data remains the most negative in recent history and though the public continues to spend as though they are rising out of a depression, business are recording record slow downs in sales. Think with me for a moment... this is the reality of stagflation, that there seems to be both positive and negative economic events occurring at the same instant. We are beginning to hire once again, but there is not enough real growth to sustain the new hiring. Do you see the odd juxtaposition? We are building new houses once again, but banks are making it too hard for people to get loans. Again, a juxtaposition in which housing starts are putting people back to work, but no one can qualify for a loan... so the building can't be sustained.

All of 2012 has been filled with record breaking events...12% gains in the market by April, then almost all the year's gains erased by the end of May... then 13% gains by September with the DOW falling to a little more than 3% gains for the year. Good news... then bad news. By the time we reach the end of 2012, I predict we will not have achieved the spectacular gains that the more liberal economists had predicted. If you had kept to a buy and hold methodology, you will have been disappointed. Even though we may see a short Christmas rally, there will be some difficult days in the near future. Keep your STOP-SELLS in place and be prepared to lose some money. A 3% gain in 2012 will be good, a 6% gain will be considered fantastic.

So 2012 is no ordinary year and will prove to be a big let down for most investors. Those on a buy and hold track have already lost money and those investing by seasonal trend also are losing money...most of these losses can be attributed to government intervention.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

"Don't count you chickens before they hatch" is the old saying. Sadly, this market just isn't hatching much. You will remember another saying: "The trend is your friend." If the trend is going down, it is not the time to buy stocks. We just haven't seen the trend turn upward.

In the previous blog I pointed out that we are approaching a "perfect storm", Europe continues in a recession,  the U.S. continues to teeter on the verge of their own recession, China is in a slowdown and the U.S. also is in a slowdown, war looms over Israel, Obama's policies are counterproductive for business, and investors are selling their positions to avoid the increased capital gains taxes begining in 2013. As of today, any small variation in the economic/political climate could move stocks down even more dramatically.

First, note the bottom right hand corner of the above chart. The DOW JONES sits at a 3.15% gain for 2012. The market could rebound if Christmas sales are significant. We will know soon, how well people are buying on Black Friday. Disappointing sales on Black Friday will surely depress stocks further and will hurt the market the rest of 2012.

I do see a buying opportunity for DLTR (dollar tree) but I have been reluctant to make purchases until the market trend is clearer. Many investors are taking a defensive position at this time. Strong Black Friday sales could mark a seasonal uptrend and bring buying opportunies for the year's end.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Man shall not live by bread alone! So what will we do now that we no longer have Hostess Twinkies. It really isn't the Twinkies I'm mad about, it is the mind set that people think they are owed more and more by the corporation that pays them. The old saying is: "Don't kill the cow who gives you milk."

Corporations live by a bottom line. They account for their profits, they subtract their costs to produce a product, and they count their profit. Now if if costs rise so much that profits no longer exist and they are going into debt to keep the corporation viable, they have no choice but to close the business. The Texas based company, Hostess will be closing their doors because union negotiations killed the cow who gave the milk.  When Hostess finally came to an agreement with the union, their investors agreed that the corporation could not continue with a negative balance and wisely closed the doors.

The result of the union's efforts is 18,500 employees immediately being laid off and a 85 year old company closing it's doors. Union President Frank Hurt said on Thursday that the crisis at the company was the "result of nearly a decade of financial and operational mismanagement" and that management was trying to make union workers the scapegoats for a plan by Wall Street investors to sell Hostess.

Now this is a major bakery in the U.S. The union simply dismisses the problem as the corporation just wanting to make more money, while those they represent face the on-going tragedy of paying their bills without jobs. It is this attitude that "we are gonna get our fair share" regardless of the financial decline, that is killing business in the U.S. and is a primary reason that businesses are moving their companies abroad. The average median annual salary in India, $736; the average median annual salary in the Philippines, $1032. And these people would be glad to have a job making hostess Twinkies all day... and night too!

Lest I sound too calloused, I know that people need to be paid in a fair and equitable way, but you can't expect a business to deliver health care, retirement benefits, and remarkable salaries during a season in which all business are struggling to remain in business.

MY STOCK  POSITIONS

Though I am not happy with my WMT bombshell, I am looking for further investments in stocks before the end of the year. There are some opportunities with the dollar stores.. GD, FDO, TGT.

WMT was a drag, but should be seen as a buying opportunity. Setting a STOP-BUY at .50 to $1 above the closing price will capture the buying opportunity when WMT is seen as oversold. You can look at my chart above to see how WMT ruined my bond gains. The season is not over yet and we will try to recapture some of our losses.

Today was a bit dicey, but with new alliances between Obama and the Republicans, we should see a positive market on Monday.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Occasionally we all get a good spanking by the stock market. Today was my spank-down. Here is the way it played out.... WMT (walmart) reports earnings to the positive and projects continued earning through the end of the year. WMT falls over 4% this morning and when combined with the 2.38% previous fall, it trips my stop-sell set at 5% below the purchase price.

Well the world has not ended. My investment in WMT was only 11% of my total portfolio and 1/3 of my stock position. I never want to lose money, but investments have risks. It is time to make lemonade from the lemons. Here's how we can do that.

Let's look at the chart for WMT:

Since mid-October WMT has fallen 11%. The expectation was that WMT would rebound after the election, instead it fell over 5% and was sold by my stop-sell. The three yellow lines represent support. Typically WMT would have found support at $73, but it fell through that support line. I suspicion that WMT could continue falling for several reasons: 1. Obama's continued stimulus policies, 2. Obama's tax plan, 3. Obama's continued war against business, 4. The fiscal cliff, 5. The capital gains bottle neck to sell off stock positions and move into cash positions to limit higher capital gains tax rates.

Please note that I didn't even include the ominous clouds of war and bankruptcy of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. All of the above may be creating an inescapable contagion which could lead us further down, instead of plodding on the flat-line growth we have been maintaining.

STRATEGIES

One way to deal with the loss on WMT is to set a STOP-BUY $1 above the closing price. A STOP is the price you want to BUY WMT. WMT closed at $68.72, so I would set my STOP at $69.72. Should WMT rise in price to $69.72 my STOP BUY would purchase SHARES of WMT. The magic of this strategy is that WMT will likely continue on its journey downward if the market is crashing. On the other hand, if the downtrend is temporary, a sudden rise by 5% would trigger the STOP BUY and you would enjoy the gains.

The second strategy is to simply buy another stock that is moving upward.

The above chart shows DLTR, TGT, DG, and FDO rising even as the DOW declined. Any of these should be buying opportunities. I got smacked pretty good by my purchase of WMT, but nothing ventured is nothing gained. I will be interested in these stocks as we look at the week coming to a close.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in any way as investment advice.)
 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Where will the market go? In front of a real market success are a series of hurdles. Will Greece evade its financial storm? Will Spain find relief for slip further into indebtedness? Will Italy find its financial footing? And how about our own looming financial cliff? Obama successfully navigated the political pitfalls, retaining his presidential position; but question now is will Obama show us the money, will he show us that he can turn the market around? I speculate that the ingenious ideas of taxing the rich and implementation of the rules and regulations surrounding Obama Care will continue to create negative economic outcomes.

Milton Friedman, Nobel prize winner in economics, talks about economic outcomes as government seeks to manipulate markets and tax to fund their agendas. I think some of the things said by Dr Friedman are so essential that I want to give you some links on www.youtube.com.

• Free Lunch Myth - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmqoCHR14n8
• Robin Hood Myth - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Wx5PYZIWcQ&feature=relmfu
• Myth of Social Security - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCdgv7n9xCY&feature=relmfu
• Stimulus & Inflation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W_9I0nk8uI 

I encourage you to find every video you can on youtube with Milton Friedman and consider the principles in today's economy.   

A Look at My Investment Positions

All of my investment positions are slowly improving but we remain in a threatening market. Even should we make leap over the fiscal cliff, most economist believe that 2013 will slip into a recession. Go back and re-listen to Milton's Stimulus & Inflation on You Tube. We are drunk with stimulus and it take more and more stimulus to keep the economy high. Now that the market has considered that each month 40 billion will be used to stimulate the market, there is no further expectation of stimulus from the Federal Reserve. If the market sours, the stimulus will already be discounted. A market decline will be a market decline. Please note....a new bubble is being created in the housing market because the 40 billion monthly is being used to by mortgages. So what will happen when all this money being poured into the economy stops?

All I can do is hope that my positions continue to climb and that WMT (walmart) catches fire over the next two months. I am reluctant to move into stocks when I see people selling their stock positions. The fear is tax related... thank you Obama... so the very wealthy are selling their stocks to pay taxes at a lower capital gains rate before they rise to a higher rate after the end of the year.

This creates a kind of "perfect storm" in which there is a stock market bottleneck; everyone must sell their stocks by the end of the year. Even if this is only 25% that sell-off their stocks for a tax benefit before 2013, we are talking about billions of dollars exchanged. This will prove to be a very tricky situation. My recommendation is to prepare to make some gains, but also have STOP-SELLS on all your trades to protect yourself if there is a major market sell-off.

 Our gold position (IAU) was as low at 5.53% two weeks ago. It has regained some momentum. The gold position is a LONG-TERM position of 9 months to 12 months. I hope for a 20% gain or more. If the market turns sour in 2013, IAU could prove to be a valuable position.

WMT will report earnings this week. I think they will meet their earnings and WMT will be a hot stock to be holding. I hope for 6% or more from WMT before the end of the year.

BND has not performed well because of competition with the FED. Twist continues and diminishes the returns on bonds.

TIP has performed well but not as well as I had expected. I am hoping for a 6% return by the end of 2012, but even the Treasury Inflation Protected product is being influenced by government manipulation.

So I am prepared for the market to continue a solid uptrend over the next five years, but I am also prepared to sell everything immediately. This is a sad day in American economics when you can't depend on the market to act in predictable ways, instead; we are seeing volatile rises and falls, the gain of billions and the loss of billions. This odd contradiction remains in the market and will not resolve itself until politicians in the U.S. are committed to a "balanced budget" and the reduction of national debt. Though these actions may be painful over the short-term, these actions would bring prosperity to our children in the years ahead.

(note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in any way as investment advice.)






 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Ouch! That smarts! We continue in a downtrend and the problem in a downtrend is that you DON'T know where you will find the bottom. Once the market turns negative, it is hard to get investors on buy back in. Now previously Bernanke could promise a QE-3, but he is already doing the QE-3 and the Twist buy back. As you can see, he really has nothing now to promise. He is doing everything he can do... and if the market goes down it is inspite of Bernanke's best efforts.

As I sit here and watch the close of the Markets, they are hammered yet another day. Eventhough my losses are low, I'm wishing I was out of the market.

I recently purchase IAU (a gold trust ETF) and saw a decline of over 5%. Presently IAU sits 2.73% below my purchase price of IAU. Gold prices seem to be slowly climbing higher in this chilling market, rising 1.8% today.

I also purchase WMT (Walmart) on election day. WMT would be a great purchase at anytime and should perform well over the Christmas season. WMT lost .85% today, with my total loss at 1.45%. I had hoped that WMT would have moved the other way and I would have sitting on a 1.45% gain. I have WMT set to sell at 5% below the purchase price. (called a STOP-SELL) I have toyed with CATM, setting a STOP-BUY at $25.20 should CATM suddenly rise. CATM continues to decline some, not finding a clear bottom.

Anytime you add new positions, it will make your averages lower on percentage gained because you are adding more money invested to the gains already achieved. So apart from the red figures of recently acquired positions, the green positions have already performed adequately.

BREAKING RULES

Never buy stock in a downtrend. I should have followed the advice, but I had thought that we would have had a new president and a trending market. I was wrong! This is why you have rules. Where any market drops 3% over two days, even the best stocks will also drop in value. The WMT stock could have risen 1.45% or higher, but now I will pay for being impetuous. Down 1.45%, WMT may not begin it's recovery until Monday.

Typically when you have 1% downturn in the stock market or several days of 1% drops, the market will rebound. Likewise, when you have several days that the market turns up 1% each day you will see a RETURN TO THE MEAN. This means market prices drop after strong rises in price.

An EXCEPTION to the "return to the mean" is when entering a BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET. A BEAR MARKET can continue for weeks, even months when market negativity arises. In this market, however artificial it is, the worst has already happened, so we hum along caught in some kind of weird economic malaise. It can't get much worse because the government is propping up the market, but it certainly can't get much better because the free market is manipulated.

Still, I want to be careful not to buy stocks where there is a LONG-TERM downtrend; and everything seems to point to a "stable market" that is coerced by the FED. Given no major economic impacts by wars or failing central banks, the stocks that have been returning profits are going to a rise in their price.

My expectation is that WMT will rebound on Monday and my other selected stocks could be purchased at that time. DOL.TO and DG are performing the best and both deserve a look.




(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Wuh? With the DOW JONES falling over 300 points, it is pretty clear how the economy feels about the continuation of the Obama presidency. We will be waiting for more responses, but so far many economists are wincing. Time will tell whether we are experiencing a real downturn or whether we will have the expected seasonal rally.

Here is today's returns on the EXPERIMENTAL $10K PORTFOLIO.

I have 1/3 of the total portfolio in BND and TIP, representing a BOND position. For caution's sake, we bought BND and TIP over a three month period. 10% of IAU, a gold ETF, was purchased as a hedge against Bernake's QE-3 buying program of $40 billion monthly. It is the belief that continued stimulus is equivelent to printing money and will devalue the dollar. The net result is that it will take more dollars to buy basic things. This means increased prices for food, rent, and gas. If you have your money in cash, the government will erode the value of what you hold. If Bernake inflates the dollar 20%, your present savings will buy 20% less. For example: You hold $100,000 in a interest bearing account at Hartford Bank. They pay you 1% annually, so you now hold $101,000 but the CONSUMER PRICE INDEX went up 10%. Groceries, rent, and gas all cost 10% than the previous year. You still hold $101,000 but its actual buying power is 10% less, so the actual VALUE of your $101,000 is only $91,000.

 

The actual value of the dollars you hold is being eroded by the ongoing printing policies of the FED. The average CPI hovers around 3% or less, but has risen into the double digits at various times in our history. Although our goverment has increased the money supply from time to time, there has never been the committment by the FED to the increasing of the money supply as we have today.

 

This is the major fear by economists, that the FED's keeping the interest rates at zero and years of increasing the money supply will result in uncontrolled inflation. A very contradictory term is STAGFLATION. Stagflation is where prices continue to climb, while economic growth remains low.

 

STOCKS

 

You will see that I purchased WMT (Walmart) in the above chart. The expectation is that WMT will rise in price over the Holiday Season. Having gained over 20% this year, WMT is a good candidate as an investment. WMT could return 6% to 8% by the end of 2012. On a day that the DOW lost 2.36% , a .86% loss in the value of WMT shows WMT's strength.

 

 

I have a STOP-BUY order for CATM set at $25.20. Should CATM show a real uptrend, it would hit the STOP-BUY and be purchased. I am also interested in DOL.TO and in the purchase of more gold in IAU. For now, I look for indications that the market will slide into a serious downtrend. My STOP-SELLS are in place to reduce my losses, but if my positions show gains, I will move the STOP-SELL just behind the closing price to maximize my returns. WMT has a STOP-SELL at 5% below the purchase price. Should WMT lose another 4.14%, I would smile and walk away. I am expecting an increase in WMT as Thanksgiving and Christmas loom on the horizon.

 

My gut feeling is that the real recession party will begin in 2013. My investment positions should improve as I remain in the market, but have already priced in my losses if the market continues downward. (If the market is indeed slipping into a deep recession, it will loose 20% or more. Even if I lose 5% on WMT now, I will repurchase WMT at a discounted price and regain the 5% lost plus a 15% to 20% gain.)

 

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

 



 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Yesterday, I blogged about CATM being oversold. Having fallen 12%, I wanted to sieze upon a buying opportunity. Early this morning, I placed a STOP-BUY on CATM. CATM opened at $25.00 and I set a STOP at $25.20 telling the broker to BUY when it reached that price. Now the purpose of not buying CATM immediately, was to give CATM room to fluxuate, and if buyers were really eager for the stock to move into an uptrend. This is good for an investor because emotions are removed and the buy is made on the rise of the price of the stock. If CATM had advanced 3% to 5% my STOP-BUY would have bought a position in CATM and I would have been sitting on a 2% to 3% gain. At noon, CATM had fallen to $24.81 closing at $24.06. Analysts consensus have recommended CATM as a STRONG BUY, suggesting a move in price from $25 to $32.75 within the next 12 months. This is a 31% gain which would be real plus in our current economy.

One stock I did purchase outright early this morning was WMT or Walmart, investing 10% of my portfolio into WMT. WMT is up .85% and I feel pretty confident about this position. You will remember that we need to invest 33.3% of our portfolio in STOCKS. I now have a 10% position in WMT and still need to invest 23% of my total portfolio in a STOCK POSITION.

Looking at our portfolio as presently positioned, the 1/3 invested in BONDS as illustrated by the orange is fully invested. BND has done poorly, but who can compete with the FED. TIP is a Treasury Inflation Proteced Security and performs best where there is an expectation of inflation. TIP has performed well and with certainty, the news reports our new president will be Obama. With the expectation of continued money printing and increasing government debt under the Obama presidency, gold will likely be a hot item tomorrow and TIP should continue to perform well even if BND doesn't.      I also purchased WMT (Walmart) and still have CATM on a STOP-BUY. TGT (Target) is another stock of interest. Both WMT and TGT stock have grown over 20% as of this date. Both should do well as we move through November and into December. I am waiting for a good entry point in the purchase of TGT. Today the market climbed over 1% and the markets will likely increase through the remainder of the week.

 

The gold ETF, IAU, climbed 1.89% today. Even with a gain of 1.89%, IAU may still be a real buy. Should BND continue to decline in price, I will sell BND. My gain to day for BND is .59%. You will remember our first rule in investing...don't loose money! So I don't want to ride BND into a loss. For specific information, my STOP-SELL is set to sell BND when it falls to .30% of its original price.

 

TROUBLE AHEAD?

 

Who can know what lies ahead. No one believes that we will have a lively and productive economy, instead; there is a belief that we will continue in the misery of financial doldrums dipping into the negative and rising into the positive and returning back to the negative again. This kind of pain will continue until a fiscal cliff, another unplanned war, a collapse of Eurozone country, or overwhelming debt pushes us back into recession.

 

Should we press onward into a recession, expect a 20% to 30% decline. You can control your losses by using a STOP-SELL. Unfortunately, you can't stay out of the market. If you are simply "holding cash" the government will devalue your dollars. You will need to be invested in such away, that your money can work for you and grow as the government prints more of its fiat currency.

 

Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Lacy Hunt, John Hussman, and John Mauldin are just a few economists who suggest holding gold (not more than 20% of your portfolio), real estate (I suggest rental properties that generate income, unless you are in a depressed real estate market.), and commodity oriented stocks. For example, people have to buy food... K is Kellog Cereals at 8%, look at the long-term chart and you will see a consistent return. Another is DPS (Dr Pepper Bottling) that has returned 14% at this time. These stocks are not as flashy as a stock returning 20% or 30% but they are consistent longterm performers and can be solid investments. I have already mentioned the DOLLAR STORES, like FDO, DG, DLTR,WMT, DOL.TO and TGT.

 

Remember...don't loose money.... use a STOP-SELL to protect yourself against loss.

 

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

 

 

 

 

 



 

Today's Market

by Dr Invest

It's the election, stupid! There is no question that since the middle of October we have found ourselves in a falling market. You know the rules of investment: 1. never lose money, 2. remember 1., 3. never invest when the market is in a downtrend.

It is almost difficult to lose money when the market is in an uptrend and almost imposible to make money when the market is in a downtrend. (There are some exceptions to the above statement, but for the amatuer investor "Stay away from down markets".

I am interested in DOLLAR STORES and in the previous blog pointed to three great performers: DOL.TO, WMT, TGT. As we settle in for a longterm economy that is hovering slightly above recession, people will be looking for bargain prices. Walmart, Target, Dollar Stores, Sam's Club, and many other retail stores will be chosen because they offer brand name products at reduced prices.

Looking at the DOW JONES, the present gain of 5.87% doesn't look that impressive. Furthermore, it appears that in the first week of October there began a clear downtrend. These are usually indications that you need to steer clear of the market. (see the descending red lines) Some suggest that the downtrend began in the middle of September, but either way the evidence of a downtrend is clear.

AT THIS TIME, I AM WAITING UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION TO PURCHASE STOCKS because of the market uncertainty.

RUMORS

Some economists believe that an Obama win could drive the stock market down further. Why you might ask? Obama has made it clear that he wants to tax money earned by corporations in other countries as well as taxing money that comes back into the U.S. from corporations. Japan taxes corporations at the highest tax rate in the world, the second highest tax rate on corporations is found in the United States. What is unique is that Obama's proposal would bring a double-tax on corporations; they would be taxed on money earned in a foreign country as well as taxed on money brought home to the U.S.

* Obama

Now this is only a rumour, but many conservative economists believe that major corporations would move their offices abroad, paying NO TAXES to the U.S. excepting on imported items. I can't tell you the time frame for such corporate moves, only that some executives have suggested the action as a way to keep from being double-taxed.

You will remember that Maryland decided to levy taxes on the rich and counted the billions that would roll into their coffers as all the millionaires coughed up the new taxes. The millionaires instead, voted with their feet and moved to other states. Maryland was left with  1.7 billion dollars in lost revenues. Hmm.. so much for that bright idea. Now the bright politicians sit on their hands as the millionaires march off to other states and weep at their dreams of what would have been. http://www.cnbc.com/id/48120446/In_Maryland_Higher_Taxes_Chase_Out_Rich_Study

Eduardo Saverin, the billionaire co-founder of Facebook, gave up his U.S. citizenship ahead of the social network's initial public offering in a move that would slash his tax bill. These are common themes that may have traction, even if just rumors right now.

*

Another rumor is that of American businessmen are closing down their companies because of Obama Care regulations which when fully enacted will enlarge the paperwork and increase the expense. Rather than continuing in business, these companies will simply close down. As I understand it, small communities will loose companies which hire anywhere from 10 to 300 employees. While these are small businesses would effect thousands of people.

 

*Romney

Many economists believe that Romney would be a plus for the market. He has promised to get rid of Bernanke and stop the stimmulus program immediately. This could be bad for gold investors, but good for the stock market. Also, his promise to seek a balanced budget and turn back the Obama Care may help reduce the nation's debt.

The problem is that many of the promises are almost impossible to keep because Congress would need to be on the same page, as well as our American Citizens. Hard and unpopular choices would need to be made and most economist believe that the general public just doesn't have the will to follow through with an austerity program. Finally, any austerity program would be sure to push the U.S. into a recession because austerity programs reduce the GDP. In all honesty, many economists already believe we are in a recession and the Bernake stimulus is simply cooking the books to make it appear we are still slowly growing. (See ECRI: http://www.businesscycle.com/)

With both candidates there are uncertainties and as long as politcians seek to hid their excess spending, we will continue to be in our present financial mess.

STOCKS

I bought TIP in May. (Go back to May blog to see the process.) My SEASONAL CHART showed May the key time to buy BONDS. I chose two ETFs (exchange traded funds) TIP and BND. 1/3 of my portfolio was dedicated to BONDS of which TIP and BND was purchased in equal shares. Today's return on TIP is 3.5% and on BND is .91%. The total return is 2.20% for 1/3 of our portfolio. Admittedly, this was not the outcome we had hoped for, but is remarkable considering we are competing with the Feds twist and stimulus plans. The most we can wish for is a 3% return by year's end for our bond fund. Anything over 3% would be icing on the cake.

SEASONAL CHARTS show that the end of October is a great entry point for STOCKS. There has been a reluctance to acquire a position in stocks because we are presently in a downtrend. When you combine this with the uncertainty of our presidential election, I have not felt an urgency to buy stocks.

OPPORTUNITIES

CATM or Cardtronics ATM has been a great performer, recording some remarkable growth. Growing 63% over the past two years, (the recent fall not included) there is no reason for anyone to abandon CATM because it fell slightly short of predicted growth.  The recent 12% drop puts CATM down 8.22% for 2012 and brings a real buying opportunity.

 

Here is how I would play this stock. I would place a STOP-BUY at $25.50; only if the stock turned up would the STOP be triggered to BUY Cardtronics. If people keep selling, I would keep my STOP-BUY at .50 behind the closing price. When people get tired of selling, CATM will return to $28 or even $31 per share. This error in judgement is likely computer sell off or traders taking profit. Do your own research on CATM. I think you will see this stock still has legs.

 

There are three stores of great interest to me. Regardless of where the economy goes, these stores will likely continue to grow and certainly will stay in business. Dollarama is a Canadian dollar store(DOL.TO), Walmart (WMT) needs no introduction, and certainly everyone knows the name Target (TGT) One need only look at the gains from these stores with DOL.TO returning 41%, WMT returning 21%, and TGT returning 24%. I see these as great buying opportunities both now and in the months to come. (Remember, always protect your profits with a STOP-SELL.)

I believe that you can take a position in all of these stocks right now, but when you BUY be sure to put a STOP-SELL behind your purchase just in case the market suddenly drops. Please, if you don't know what you are doing, ask me for help. !#%drinvest@mail.com remove the characters from the address.

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Today we want to look at where we are at in our positions and then define where we want to go. We are using tools readily available to any investor and without charge. Go to Yahoo.com and then investments. Go to CHARTS and select INTERACTIVE. I have started with one of my investments called BND. Then I select COMPARE on the chart and add TIP and IAU. I selected 6 MONTHS to see how these positions have performed since MAY when I entered TIP and BND.

Under COMPARE are also all the major indexes and I selected DOW, S&P, and Nasdeq.

This chart gives me a lot of information. First our range is from MAY, so don't get confused. The S&P is hovering slightly above 0 since May in gains. The other two indexes are doing worse with the DOW nearing negative 2% and NASDEQ moving above negative 2%. All the major indexes turned down in early October and have continued a downtrend since that time. Listen! YOU CAN'T SEE GAINS IN STOCKS WHILE THE MARKET IS IN A DOWNTREND. (The exception is inverse ETFs or shorting stocks. Shorting is challening for the novice investor and requires real experience to master your shorts. Hedging is a different idea involving taking two positions at the same time to protect a downside of a particular position. For example: I buy $100K of IBM stock. I am concerned that my IBM stock could loose value so I buy an OPTION to protect me against a downturn in the price of IBM stock. See you are already confused... so KISS is a better principle. KeepItSimpleStupid!)

Getting back to our chart, it shows that our position is working. We have navigated through some rough water with all the indexes turning down almost 9% from May to June and then climbing almost 13% by mid-September. Since September the fall from grace has been almost 6%. Now I am not being exact, but just glancing at my chart and generalizing over all the indexes. Generalizing is really all you need for this exercise. At a glance, we can see that TIP, BND, and IAU have turned up rising roughly 1% or more over the past week.

What is clear, is that STOCK INDEXES are not viable at this moment. A quick look at VEU (all world stock indexes) and VTI (All U.S. stock indexes) show a downward trend for the present. My interest will be in the DOLLAR STORES as individual stocks for the holiday season.

Again, we are looking for general ideas as we consider DOLLAR STORES for our investment into stocks. DLTR is the lowest because they are expanding their stores. Eventhough DLTR falls above negative 20%, it could be a sleeper...with more stores they could suddenly grow faster and bring the best gains. Personally, I see that  as speculation and wouldn't make DLTR my choice.

FDO falls below 0% since MAY and DG does little better. This leaves me with three probable selections of interest. Dollarama, a Canadian dollar store (DOL.TO), Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT).  For stock positions, I will select these three stores DOL.TO, WMT, and TGT, taking 20% of my $10K portfolio dividing it equally between the three stocks. A stop-sell will be placed at 8% below the purchase price. Friday will not likely be the day to make the purchase because of the over 1% gain in the DOW. The market will probally settle down by the first part of next week.

(note:the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used a investment advice.)











 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

We pray for those on the East Coast who will undergo Hurricane Sandy. I know that many lives will be traumatized and real losses will hurt those who are already hurting economically. So may God protect our friends on the East Coast.

Gary Shiller with Bloomberg wrote an article today from which I want to give you a few quotes. You can go to the article yourself and read it in its entirety at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-28/bargain-addicted-investors-ignore-perils-of-low-rates.html

Gary has come to a conclusion that I have already been expressing from this blog. So let's look at some of the key ideas:

The U.K. and the euro zone are in a recession, the U.S. economy is teetering, and a hard landing is unfolding in China. Softness in these three paramount economies is dragging down the rest of the world. So why do most investors seem totally unconcerned over the unfolding global contraction?
This is what I call the Grand Disconnect between weak and weakening economies worldwide, on one hand, and optimistic investors, on the other, who are hooked on massive monetary and fiscal stimulus programs.

Economies and financial markets have become so dependent on monetary and fiscal bailouts -- and investors so enamored of them -- that all seem to have forgotten the dire circumstances that continue to make these rescues necessary. Many market participants yearn for conditions that are so troubled that central banks and governments, be it in China, the U.S. orEurope, will be spurred to greater easing, with positive implications for stocks.

“Conditions are so bad that it’s good for my equity portfolio,” the thinking seems to be. This almost total reliance on monetary and fiscal stimulus, with little regard for fundamental economic performance --except to hope that growth will be weak enough to spur more government action -- is a new phenomenon. Until quite recently, there was strong faith in government action, but it was coupled with the belief that such measures would quickly re-establish robust economic growth.

Restoring Growth

I have often been asked what monetary or fiscal actions would rapidly restore economic growth, as if a magic bullet would bring back the salad days of the 1980s and 1990s. My reply was that no such cure existed. The immense monetary and fiscal stimulus in the U.S., including the $1 trillion-plus annual federal-government deficits, the $2.3 trillion in quantitative easing and about $1.5 trillion of excess bank reserves held by the Federal Reserve, probably made the economy and financial markets better off. Nevertheless, slow and now faltering global economic growth indicate that these huge efforts were more than offset by gigantic deleveraging in the private sector. The only thing that would restore normal global growth, I argued, was time -- the five to seven years it will take for deleveraging to be completed.

The search for a magic bullet seems to have been abandoned. The emphasis is now almost solely on the opiate of government stimulus, increasing quantities of which will probably be needed to keep investment addicts satisfied. The recent announcements of quantitative easing by the Fed and the European Central Bank have had a diminishing impact on the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index. And recent market actions suggest that QE3 may be a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news.
What more can be done? The Fed’s commitment to purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities a month is open-ended, and is scheduled to last until the unemployment rate, now at 7.8 percent, drops to the Fed target range of about 5 percent to 6 percent and there is robust job creation. That will probably take a number of years. Meanwhile, excess bank reserves will continue to increase.

So why did Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke push through the third round of quantitative easing? Sure, the Fed has a dual mandate to promote full employment as well as price stability, but QE3 on top of Operation Twist, QE2 and QE1 and all the Wall Street rescue measures the Fed took in 2008 have pushed the central bank deep into the realm of fiscal policy, compromising its fiercely defended independence. Also, the open-ended and unprecedented nature of QE3 might suggest that Bernanke has lost control.

Furthermore, the effectiveness of previous rounds of quantitative easing is questionable. Even though the Fed has bought $2.3 trillion of long-term securities, economic growth is marginal at best and unemployment remains very high. Of course, we will never know what would have happened had the Fed not acted. History isn’t a controlled experiment where you can change one baffle in the maze, run the rats through again and see if they take a different path.

I think I have provided enough of the article to affirm my own position. We are in a new era of  investment that has never existed before. We buy stocks by faith, expecting that the FED will provide enough stimulus to keep our stocks growing 12% per year. History proves that partnerships between the government and private enterprise ends poorly.

ENTERING A STOCK POSITION

With all the above bad news, it makes one want to find their own corner for a fetal position and thumb sucking. We really don't have time for that luxury right now because now is a key time to buy stocks if we are to see any gains at all for 2012.

Here are the rules:

1. Rule one, never loose money.
2. Rule two, remember rule one.
3. But to enter a position (buy stocks) is risky, so determine how much you are willing to lose.
4. Set a stop-sell on the amount you are willing to loose on each stock.
5. Move your stop-sell behind the daily closing price if the price of the stock is going up.

LOOKING AT THE SEASON

Below is a seasonal chart for ELECTION YEARS from 1944 until 2008. Six of those years fell below the average shown with the BLACK LINE. Eleven of those years rose above the average return for the S&P. So about 35% of the time the S&P fell below average and even then only 17% of the election years the S&P fell below zero. I am not going to go into deep detail here, but generally speaking you have a 64% chance for a gain, a 82% of not loosing anything, 17% chance of a loss.



There are so many factors that impact the market, that we can't just use one. The stimulus program does impact the outcome of these charts and when you consider that much of what you see in the market is artificial, it give one pause before entering a stock position.

MY FAVORITE THINGS

Let me be explicit. We are still in an economic crisis. Dollar Stores have performed well during the economic downturn and they continue to do so. See Bloomberg article:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-26/dollarama-outperforms-wal-mart-as-retail-stock-corporate-canada.html

So here are some of my favorite things to look at for short-term seasonal gains:

STOCK                       YTD PERFORMANCE
DOL.TO                                      41.53%                                     Dollarama (Canada)
DG                                               15.94%                                     Dollar General
FDO                                             14.27%                                     Family Dollar
DLTR                                           -3.31%    (about debt & expansion but longterm buying opportunity)
                                                                                                      Dollar Tree

WMT                                            24.50%                                    Walmart
TGT                                              25.04%                                    Target
                                     
PETM                                           31.33%                                    Pet Smart

Most of these stocks are based on consumer spending. I expect that consumer spending will be up this Christmas Season driving returns for some of these stocks even higher. All stocks will have stop-sells to avoid losses. Should the stop-sell be engaged, I won't even look back. The stock will have to prove that it can sustain profits before I will repurchase the stock.

OUR ETF STOCK POSITIONS

In theory our Ivy Portfolio calls for an investment into the overall stock index for the U.S. if the SMA falls below the closing price. An exceptions to this rule is:

• If the market is in a down trend

So look at my chart below for the VTI ETF. Since mid-September VTI has been in a down trend dropping from $75.50 to now at $72.28.

 

I am reluctant to enter a postion in VTI as long as it stays in a down trend.

 

Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.