Today's Market
by Dr Invest

In my last article, I alluded to consumer spending being down. This is because many corporations are only offering part-time jobs, which continue to be low-pay and circumvent the Obamacare ACA regulations. In the U.S. full-time employees must have their medical insurance paid by the corporation. (I know I'm being simplistic here, but there's not enough space to discuss ACA.) No one would argue that workers are being paid less, that inflation has been rising, that hidden taxes, fees, and medical insurance forced upon the U.S. populace has left families with less to spend at restaurants and stores. So consumer spending is down, affecting GDP and pulling down on economic recovery. 

Brian Louis recently wrote:

Empty stores from retailers that went out of business years ago -- such as Borders Group Inc., which had big floor plans that are hard to fill -- are dotting shopping centers across the country at a time the rest of the commercial real estate market has rebounded. They’re now going to be joined by thousands of additional stores that will soon be vacant as retailers such as RadioShack Corp. file for bankruptcy and department-store operators including J.C. Penney Co. and Macy’s Inc. cut locations to save money.

Vacancies at U.S. regional malls rose to 8 percent in the fourth quarter from 7.9 percent a year earlier, partly because of Sears Holdings Corp. store closures, according to Reis Inc. The real estate recovery for neighborhood and community shopping centers has “remained at a snail’s pace,” the New York-based research firm said in January.

Retailers and restaurateurs said last year they planned to close 5,483 locations, more than double the 2,592 in 2013, which was a record low, according to a report by the International Council of Shopping Centers and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. Last year’s total was the highest since 2010, according to the study.

Since then, retailers including apparel chains Wet Seal Inc. and Cache Inc. have filed for bankruptcy. Fort Worth, Texas-based RadioShack, with about 4,000 locations, sought protection from creditors on Feb. 5.

More troublesome for landlords than the relatively small Wet Seal and RadioShack locations are the spaces being abandoned by J.C. Penney and Macy’s. Replacement tenants will be difficult to find for those stores, with their large footprints. Macy’s Inc., based in Cincinnati, said in January that it will cut 14 of its approximately 790 Macy’s store locations within a few months. Plano, Texas-based J.C. Penney said it would close 40 stores around the U.S. this year.
Today's headline that unemployment has never been lower is admirable, but says little about the real condition of our economy. We may well see a dramatic recovery from yesterday's dramatic losses in the market, but the underlying economic sickness remains. Since 2012, when stimulus and bond buying began, our economy has been on life support. It is only a matter of time before economic conditions slip lower and a dreaded recession wipes away trillions in stock gains and the dreams of financial security.

(note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in anyway as financial advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest


Only now have analyst begun to admit that there are flaws in our U.S. economy, and only after a continued troubling downturn in the market. Shiller, professor at Yale, acknowledged that he was getting out of U.S. stocks, later saying that investors were continuing to invest in stocks out of fear. Stocks, he said, are the only game in town and that investors were exchanging risks for returns.

David Rosenberg took a step back to highlight four of the biggest obstacles facing the bull market.

Rosenberg, a typically bullish analyst  outlined:

1. Earnings momentum has slowed. Bottom-up consensus forecasts for S&P 500 operating earnings growth in the first quarter have fallen to -3.1% from +5.3% year-over-year. "The second quarter has been sliced to -0.7% YoY as well, so technically speaking we could be looking at a mild profits recession here in the US – this is down from the +5.9% estimate at the start of the year," he wrote.
2. Valuations are high. The trailing P/E ratio is 20x, compared to the long-run norm of 16x. "It actually is not all that uncommon to see the equity market up in years when EPS growth is flat-ish (as the consensus now believes for 2015) but that requires price-to-earnings multiple expansion."
3. Economic data has been disappointing. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is at the lowest level since August 2011, and in that month, the S&P 500 dipped in a way that led some to think the economic cycle was turning.
4. The strong dollar is hurting profits. "There is such a thing as too much of a good thing," Rosenberg wrote, and the dollar bull market is not over. He advised investors to avoid sectors that have EPS forecasts below zero, including Utilities (-6.6%) and Telecom (-0.8%.)

Up until last week, no analyst would acknowledge these grim figures. There was only the acknowledgement of a economy reaching velocity to break free of the recessionary levels held the past five years. Even president Obama touted how strong the economy had become under his leadership with employment reaching new highs. The problem is that the improvement in employment has come in part-time jobs that are relative low pay. Companies, seeking to avoid paying for the healthcare of full-time employees have begun to offer only part-time positions. Now heads of households must hold two part-time jobs and then those jobs pay less. When those jobs are recorded, they are recorded as though two people are now employed, when only one person has two jobs.

You may have a short memory, but back in the recession of 2008 there was a change in the way statistics were reported that made the GDP appear more robust, a kind of rewriting of the rules. Most of these changes were because of politics, so our economy would appear more robust. 

The reality is that people are making less income and they are being taxed more. Rules have been rewritten in the U.S. tax code so you pay more... more in fees if you don't have medical insurance... more in fees if you sell a second home (NIT), fees called medicare surtax, and redefining pretax income. (For instance, before 2014 your company could pay for your heath insurance and it would not be counted as income to you. Now the $10,000 to $15,000 your company pays for your health insurance must be added to your total income. So if your company paid $10,000 for your health insurance and your salary was $50,000 a year.... your total income would now be reported as $60,000. Effectively, your are being taxed more, even if taxes were not raised.)

Taxes put a drag on growth. Add to the mix a over valued dollar and declining consumer purchases and you have a recipe for disaster. So hold on to your hats, because the wind is picking up. Politicians and Wall Street brokers will continue their mantra that the economy is taking off. Don't believe it!

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in anyway as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Let me reiterate, we have been in a recession since 2012. The Federal Reserve, shrewdly used money printing (Liquidity) to float the economy. You will remember that in May of 2012, Bernanke, the then head of the Federal Reserve, began Quantitative Easing (QE). This inflated a market that was then in recession and is still in recession. The recession that began in 2012 never really ended. All of the QE would have caused remarkable INFLATION, excepting that we were in a RECESSION. The recession mean people receiving less INCOME. With less income and less consumer spending, there were less TAX REVENUES. City governments, State governments, and our National government suddenly found their selves short of the money needed for government programs. Numerous cities filed for bankruptcy. Even some state governments neared bankruptcy and were only pulled back by radical spending cuts.

THE CRY FOR INCREASING MINIMUM WAGE HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH COMPASSION, RATHER TO GAIN MORE TAXES FOR GOVERNMENT. It is loathsome to couch compassion for the poor under paid worker on the seat of self gain. This government's greatest concern is that business are not increasing the salaries of their workers. Is this because of their great humanitarian concern? No! This is because if companies would only increase salaries, the government could collect more taxes. Now if there is legislation to raise your taxes, you will likely call your Congressman immediately. But this kind of taxation is far more subtitle.

The implement a national healthcare insurance program (Obamacare) that BIG BUSINESS will have to pay for. This is hidden form of TAXATION. Increase minimum wage on BIG BUSINESS. This is a hidden form of TAXATION. Fees for people not wanting national healthcare insurance. This is a hidden form of TAXATION. If you own a second home and you sell it, there is a FEE that is paid into OBAMACARE. That is a hidden form of TAXATION. There are many other FEES that have been implemented on tobacco, alcohol, or luxury purchases, all amounting to a hidden form of TAXATION. There are a number of FEES yet to be implemented, but they are forms of HIDDEN TAXATION.

Businesses are buying back their stock and investing in their plants. Yet, these same businesses are cutting less desirable workers, hiring more desirable workers, and keeping their profits abroad. The government is begging them to hire more workers, but they are saying no! The government is begging them to bring their profits home, but they are reluctant to do so. The government's interest is not for the companies to reinvest in the U.S., but to TAX those companies, so government can continue to expand. It is the LACK OF FUNDS that keep the government from continued expansion.

So LIMITED INCOME, HIDDEN TAXATION, and INCREASED DEBT present a drag on the economy that is insurmountable.

TODAY'S MARKET NEWS

Wall Street and the Federal Reserve have talked about reaching "ESCAPE VELOCITY" for the economy in 2015. Although this term has been used over the past three years, we have yet to achieve "escape velocity". To the chagrin of bankers and brokers all over Wall Street, today was marked by the DAY THAT ALL THE GAINS IN 2015 WERE ERASED.  This was because earnings are in worse shape that investors recognized.

Do what! I thought we were at "ESCAPE VELOCITY" in our economy. The dollar is suddenly higher than the nations around us whose currencies are DEFLATING.  To make the dollar drop in value, we have to print more dollars. Already wall street is demanding that the Federal Reserve return to Quantitative Easing.   The projection was for a 3.2% increase in the GDP, when earnings growth for companies have contracted 5.1% during the first quarter. Now analysts are wondering if the Federal Reserve's projections were at all correct.

Go to BUSINESSCYCLE.COM and read their latest news. The economy is not improving and not projected to improve.


Providing the above chart, the ECRI shows us that a combination of demographic trends and government intervention is leading GDP lower.

Finally, Dr Lacey at Hosington has written one of the most accurate assessments I have read regarding the present economic conditions. You would be foolish not to read this article. You can get there by going to http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2014Q4NP.pdf

Dr Lacey notes the DEFLATIONARY condition in the economy, CURRENCY MANIPULATION by the FED, OVER INDEBTEDNESS by governments, businesses, and individuals, and continued efforts by central banks to compete in an ever declining market.

SUGGESTIONS FOR INVESTORS

If you are invested, consider how much you are willing to lose and SET SELL POINTS. In other words determine how you are going to get out of the market. Don't wait too long to sell. The first out wins, the last out carries the losses.

If you are not invested, stay in cash until a firm downtrend has been established. Look for 30% to 50% losses. Only then could you consider re-entering the market. It is better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than to be in the market wishing you were out.

I have been positioned in a market, seeing losses each day; it is not a happy time. So walk carefully.

(Note: the above information is for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only and not to be used as investment advice)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Of course I'm not investing! I know I sound like a broken record, but everyone knows that this market has not performed on its own since May of 2012. Bernanke began buying bonds driving the price of bonds down to an almost a zero interest rate. But this action, which is simply money printing, drove the price of stocks up. There was an appearance of growing wealth at the expense of bond holders, but this over valuation of stocks has drive the PE ratio into the extraordinary.

I provide the example of COPPER. Copper has moved with the S&P and is an indicator of market strength. But since May of 2012, the price of copper has dropped, while the S&P has climbed. See graph below:

This would have been an indicator to SELL stocks. In the fall of 2012, copper and the S&P linked back up, appearing that there could be some market strength. But by January of 2013, copper had once again decoupled, falling to new lows while the S&P climbed to new highs. 

This is what we call DEFLATIONARY ACTION. Stocks climbed, but GOLD FELL.... Stocks climbed, but OIL FELL.....  Deflation is a recession, but our government has printed so much money, calling it GROWTH, that even wall street has begun to believe their own lie.

In Alex Rosenberg's article, titled Shiller is Back and has more Depressing News, he writes:

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller has a grim message for investors: Save up, because in the years ahead, assets aren't going to give you the type of returns that you've become accustomed to. In his third edition of "Irrational Exuberance," which will drop later this month, the Yale professor of economics warns about high prices for stocks and bonds alike. "Don't use your usual assumptions about returns going forward." Shiller recommended to investors in a Thursday interview on CNBC's " Futures Now ." He says that stock valuations look rich. In fact, Shiller's favorite valuation measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which compares current prices to the prior 10 years' worth of earnings) is "higher than ever before except for the times around 1929, 2000, and 2008, all major market peaks," he writes in his new preface to the third edition. "It's very hard to predict turning points in markets," Shiller said on Thursday. His CAPE measure of the S&P 500 (CME:Index and Options Market: .INX) "could keep going up. ... But it's definitely high. By historical standards, it's up there." Meanwhile, Shiller said that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, "can't keep trending down" and "could [reach] a major turning point in coming years." It's no surprise, then, that Shiller expects little in the way of asset returns-meaning Americans will have to rely more heavily on the piggy bank.

Read More Shiller warns bond investors: Beware of 'crash'! Given the current state of the stock and bond markets, "you might want to save more. A lot of people aren't saving enough. And incidentally, people are living longer now and health care is improving, you might end up retired for 30 years-people are not really preparing for that," he said. The other pillar of his advice is a classic tenant of responsible investing, with a global twist. "Diversify, because that helps reduce risk," Shiller said. "And you can diversify outside the United States. Some people would never invest in Europe-I think that's a mistake." Shiller adds that emerging markets can also provide attractive values. And indeed, valuations in much of the world are far lower than in the United States, given that investors are more optimistic about economic prospects in America than in nearly any other country. But perhaps people shouldn't base their investing decisions quite so heavily on predictions. "The future is always coming up with surprises for us, and the best way to insulate yourself from these surprises is to diversify," Shiller said.

Shiller is definitely not a 'PERMA BEAR', he is though, a BULL all the WAY. That is what has me worried, Shiller is warning all the other BULLS that this run can't last much longer. Stock are over valued like in 1929... (does that year mean anything to you?) and like 2000 and 2008.... 

Shiller believes that this bull run can't continue much longer. And the worry is that we could fall into even a more severe recession than in 2008. I do believe that market manipulation by the central banks will push economies into debt and default, including the U.S. 

THE ANSWER FOR YOU

Yes, I know, what can you do to avoid this on-coming collapse. When the market falls, it will fall fast. Called a FLASH CRASH, wall street already has technology in place to keep people from selling their positions to get out too quickly. So the first out, will be the ones who keep their gains. The major trading firms make those decisions and place trades within GIGASECONDS. Faster than you can blink an eye, they have already make their move. You can't compete with this kind of trading.

So you need to consider when you have enough gains, to move into a cash position. Listen, a bull market cannot last forever. We are well overdue for a MAJOR MARKET CORRECTION. To keep your profits, you have to move to a cash position. Typical losses in these corrections range from 43 to 58 percent. You can loose HALF your nest egg. In a month you can see a $500,000 reduced to $250,000. To regain your loss, your investment will need to grow 100%. 

So move out of STOCKS, and seek investments that are less volatile. Real Estate can be a very safe investment. Still, you will need to determine whether your area is in an economic decline before making that kind of investment. 

Gold has already been mentioned, as China and Russia are buying plenty of gold because it cannot be devalued by money printing.  The more money the government prints, the more expensive gold becomes. Gold is just a commodity, just metal. But it hasn't lost its glitter and continues to be the only real standard of value. I don't see that changing in the decades ahead.

In short, there are no real protections for a market that not a FREE MARKET and is manipulated by central banks. The value of Money, say the central banks, is what we say its is. They will learn the hard way that people will create their own currency, like bitcoin. Other experiments are with gold certificates, backed by real gold. The government hates these kind of competitors, because as the dollar becomes stronger against other currencies, it is actually growing weaker against the value of gold.

Finally, look at the chart below:

Just like COPPER, there has been a decoupling of DURABLE GOODS ORDERS from the S&P 500. And look where that decoupling occurs.... Yes, May of 2012. These charts are telling us something. The economy is not nearly as strong as our government is saying it is. Wall Street has joined right in with the government, crowing about how we are ready to have the greatest year ever. Yet the FUNDAMENTALS are telling us something very different and have been doing so since 2012. Excepting a brief SPIKE in 2014, new orders of durable goods has almost flat lined.

Even the decrease of unemployment is discouraging in that most jobs are part time and there are no significant increases in income paid to workers. This is indicative of economic weakness, not economic strength. 

(Note:the above information is not to be used in any way as investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Happy New Year!  We are told by numerous pundits that 2015 is taking off like no other year before it. We have, finally, reached economic karma. There is no need for you to worry, ever! The Federal Reserve has everything under their control and we will not see a recession ever again.

The government's analysis, along with a host of wall street brokers and banks, completely put me at ease. Because of President Obama's leadership, all future market downturns have been vanquished, recovery has finally come. For some reason, I'm not drinking the cool-aide. I believe that the market I see around me is artificial, and so do a lot of other smart people.

A STACKED DECK

Everyone knows it is a STACKED DECK.  The economy is still on "life support". Yes, the Fed stopped stimulus, but interest rates are at zero percent and likely to stay that way into the near future. And remember, should the market suddenly plunge, there is the promise of immediate bond buying once again. EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS IS NOT A STRONG ECONOMY, but the President and wall street want to play that it is.

SIGNS OF TROUBLES

The Republicans lost their first proposed bill that a FULL-TIME JOB would be defined as 40 hours a week and not 30 hours a week. The President crowed that he would veto it and his faithful suitors didn't support it. Why is 30 hours so important?

Well, there are two sides, one side blames Obamacare, pointing to the fact that employee's deductible has ballooned to 80%. The other side blames businesses, who are not paying for their employee's insurance by reducing their work week to 30 hours. Furthermore, they blame businesses for not providing their employee a higher salary, so the employee can pay for a higher medical deductible. And so the argument continues in blaming and counter-blaming while the middle class struggles to make a minimum salary.

Taken from the Courier Journal:  Inpatient care last year averaged $17,553, and insurance plans require people to pay a portion of that even after meeting their deductibles, up to an out-of-pocket maximum that can easily exceed $10,000 a year for families. Median household income in the U.S. is around $53,000, and the average American has less than $6,000 in savings, according to a 2012 report by Pitney-Bowes Software. A quarter have no emergency savings at all, Bankrate.com reported in June.

A little math for the middle class. If you subtract $17,553 from $53,000, you have $35,467 remaining. Now who can live on $35,467 a year? The solution is RAISE SALARIES, then everyone can afford government healthcare. This is akin to the government passing benefits for all the citizens, and then asking them to pay for their own benefits that they passed. Legislators mistakenly believe that business is flush with profits to pay for whatever they legislate. Second, Legislators are currently talking about "FAIR SHARE". This interprets to HIGHER TAXES.

Let me get this right. Someone in Washington wants to tax me more to pay for the increase in the size of government, then do me a favor by giving to me special benefits that I'm to take from my hard earned profits. If I want special benefits, why don't I just pay for them myself? Because, Washington wants to take from successful businessmen, the "fat cats" of our society, and have them pay the unfortunate a share their business earnings.

I know a young man, he owns a lawn care business with two employees beside himself. The government wants to take money from him to pay for free healthcare for those two employees and more money to increase their wages. So using the $17,500 inpatient care average, my friend would have to pay an additional $35,000 annually for healthcare. Then he would have to pay an additional $2.85 per hour for each employee. For two employees, that is an additional $11,856 annually. This amounts to $46,856 in additional expenses. Do you think this small businessman will be able to keep his employees and pay these additional fees? This is why businessmen are not rushing to increase salaries. Several small businessmen have told me that they are letting their employees go and working the business by their self. Why? Because the small increase they would get with employees doesn't warrant the financial responsibility of having employees.

Well what about large corporate organizations. They have plenty of money to give away! Put yourself in CEO's place. McDonald's or Walmart. Walmart employs around 2.1 million people. Using our magic increase of  $5,928 per person, Walmart expenses would increase a whopping $12 BILLION. Current profits, after expenses are around $17 BILLION. So what, if they only made $5 BILLION. The problem is that these numbers are so large, that we can't really understand them. In a down market, Walmart looses millions each week. Without CAPITAL, Walmart would quickly collapse. J.C. Penney, Sears, and Montgomery Ward are all examples of how a down season in sells can bring a company to the edge of disaster.

SUMMARY

A combination of poor economic conditions, market manipulation by the government, demands that businesses carry their "fair share", and government healthcare burden, have left small business men with uncertainty about the future of the economy. Both wise investors and business men are reluctant to invest fully into an economy that is still in recovery. There is a disconnect between what the government says is a "healthy recovery" and what business people see as "economic reality".

ECONOMIC WEATHER

The economic weather will be partly cloudy to stormy. The sun will shine through from time to time, followed by heavy down pours, flooding, and possible tornadoes. I don't think we will see clear weather in 2015 and the threat of a bear market will be with us throughout the year.


(Note: the above article is for entertainment only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Bubbly analyst remind the small investors that even though stocks are at an all time high, it is still a good time to put all your money in stocks. There seems to be no trepidation about the Greek Stock Index dropping 18% in one day, or a barrel of oil dropping from $120+ per barrel to $56 per barrel. Even professor Schiller who developed the Schiller Price Indicator, can't acknowledge that his own indicator is flashing that it is time to get out of the market. <http://finance.yahoo.com/video/scary-market-indicator-shiller-121400665.html>

Looking For Head & Shoulders

We are looking for the forming of a head and shoulders pattern and that pattern seems to be shaping up in such a way that March through May would be the target for a downturn. Now I am speculating here and that is why you are reading a BLOG. Blogs are entertaining and serve no purpose other than entertainment and that is especially true of this blog. So let me speculate a little.

Everyone knows that the market could continue to go up or could suddenly collapse at any moment, but several patterns do seem to be prime patterns. Most recessions begin with a Head & Shoulders pattern.

The Fed-eral-Reserve Is On Its Way!  

The Republicans are empowered by a populace that is exhausted from government debt. Obama has already spent more than any previous president, initiated programs that will increase debt and limit incomes for years into the future, and with Fed stimulus programs increasing our national debt to even higher extremes, people are DEMANDING that the spending stop. This puts the Federal Reserve in even a more difficult position, opening the way for recession to finally unfold. Yet, it is likely that pressure will be put on the Fed to continue limited stimulus programs to advert any market downturns.

House of Cards

Recessions in Japan, Greece, Russia, and China are not without consequence. Other markets are also teetering on the edge of recession and likely to fall into recession. Can the U.S. continue a vibrant recovery in the face of world-wide recession?

I think you know the answer to this question. No!

Ken Moraif wrote: The international monetary fund (IMF) cut its 2014 world growth forecast for the sixth time since January 2013. Europe, Japan and China all seem to be on the verge of recession and are fighting to create growth.

All of their respective central banks are ramping up the process of printing untold trillions of dollars in an effort to stimulate their economies. As we saw last week, the Market will receive this very favorably. The Market doesn't care whether the growth is real or artificial it only cares that there is some.

The prospect of massive government stimulus programs in all of those economies will most likely make the Market go up over the next few months. The problem, of course, is that you can pump adrenaline into a sick person and he could get up and run around the room, but once the adrenaline wears off, the patient is still sick. This may very well be the case when governments around the world run out of stimulative options and all we are left with is a mountain of debt.

When that happens, the Markets will no longer be happy and we could see a significant correction.

If you are concerned about the market setting all-time highs and look below you and see nothing but the abyss, let me say that I agree with you. The rise since the end of the last bear market is historic. You and I both know that the higher the market goes, the further down it could fall.

Couple this with the fact that the longer we go between bear markets the more severe the bear market is when it finally gets here and we have the recipe for market volatility. We average a bear market every three and a half years. It has now been over seven years since the last one started. We are now 42 months overdue.

Since 2012, copper prices have collapsed while stock prices have soared. Since the price of copper moves with the price of stocks, it has been my belief that the market collapsed in May of 2012. May of 2012 was when Bernake began his major stimulus program which kept stock prices from collapsing, but the economy never really ignited as hoped.

If you are to remain in the market, be agile. He who gets out first, saves the value of his portfolio.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in ANYWAY as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

One of the major questions is who will take the next step? Who will invest the BIG MONEY? You may ask, "What are you talking about?" Well, the market has rebounded, but with very low volumes of trading. This means that investors are shy. The investors I am really talking about are not speculators or traders, but the "big boys", the institutional investors.

What we are seeing is an uncertainty in the market. There is talk of growth and a robust recovery, but no one really wants to get into the market at these high prices. Mark Hulbert interviewed Hayes Martin and found some very interesting ideas. You can read more about it for yourself at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-stock-market-is-weaker-than-it-looks-2014-11-07?siteid=yhoof2

Here are some highlights. First point, the market is weaker than it looks; second point, the recent rally is unsustainable; third point, investors are not committing to the market, there is no strong buying conviction. Hulbert writes:
,
A most telling weakness, according to Martin, is that the market never exhibited the kind of explosive upside action that is typically seen “early in a strong market advance off important lows.” For example, there has not been even one session in which trading volume for issues rising in price was at least nine times greater than the volume for declining issues — a so-called “9-to-1 up day,” as this phenomenon was dubbed by the late Marty Zweig.

This is noteworthy because, as Zweig wrote in his 1986 investment classic “Winning on Wall Street,” “every bull market in history, and many good intermediate advances, have been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9-to-1 up days.”

Martin suggest: Martin’s best guess? We’re not at the beginning of an intermediate-term advance that takes the broad market averages to significantly higher levels. Instead, the recent rally is merely “an interim bottom within a longer-developing top.”

I would agree with this idea, Our five-year Bull Market is long in the tooth and likely to collapse; stocks are over bought and over priced; QE is being abandoned because of the small affect on the market and the development of new market bubbles; and the likelihood of near term bear is very near. I have suggested that we could see recessionary pressures return in January, but it could be pushed into April of 2015. Finally, some are pointing to a more positive political climate with the GOP taking power, but since 2012 our market has been like no other. Everything you see in this economy is artificial and without real economic advances, no amount of money printing will produce a vibrant economy.

(Note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in any way for investment advice.)