Today's Market
by Dr Invest

"Don't count you chickens before they hatch" is the old saying. Sadly, this market just isn't hatching much. You will remember another saying: "The trend is your friend." If the trend is going down, it is not the time to buy stocks. We just haven't seen the trend turn upward.

In the previous blog I pointed out that we are approaching a "perfect storm", Europe continues in a recession,  the U.S. continues to teeter on the verge of their own recession, China is in a slowdown and the U.S. also is in a slowdown, war looms over Israel, Obama's policies are counterproductive for business, and investors are selling their positions to avoid the increased capital gains taxes begining in 2013. As of today, any small variation in the economic/political climate could move stocks down even more dramatically.

First, note the bottom right hand corner of the above chart. The DOW JONES sits at a 3.15% gain for 2012. The market could rebound if Christmas sales are significant. We will know soon, how well people are buying on Black Friday. Disappointing sales on Black Friday will surely depress stocks further and will hurt the market the rest of 2012.

I do see a buying opportunity for DLTR (dollar tree) but I have been reluctant to make purchases until the market trend is clearer. Many investors are taking a defensive position at this time. Strong Black Friday sales could mark a seasonal uptrend and bring buying opportunies for the year's end.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)