Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Happy New Year!  We are told by numerous pundits that 2015 is taking off like no other year before it. We have, finally, reached economic karma. There is no need for you to worry, ever! The Federal Reserve has everything under their control and we will not see a recession ever again.

The government's analysis, along with a host of wall street brokers and banks, completely put me at ease. Because of President Obama's leadership, all future market downturns have been vanquished, recovery has finally come. For some reason, I'm not drinking the cool-aide. I believe that the market I see around me is artificial, and so do a lot of other smart people.

A STACKED DECK

Everyone knows it is a STACKED DECK.  The economy is still on "life support". Yes, the Fed stopped stimulus, but interest rates are at zero percent and likely to stay that way into the near future. And remember, should the market suddenly plunge, there is the promise of immediate bond buying once again. EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS IS NOT A STRONG ECONOMY, but the President and wall street want to play that it is.

SIGNS OF TROUBLES

The Republicans lost their first proposed bill that a FULL-TIME JOB would be defined as 40 hours a week and not 30 hours a week. The President crowed that he would veto it and his faithful suitors didn't support it. Why is 30 hours so important?

Well, there are two sides, one side blames Obamacare, pointing to the fact that employee's deductible has ballooned to 80%. The other side blames businesses, who are not paying for their employee's insurance by reducing their work week to 30 hours. Furthermore, they blame businesses for not providing their employee a higher salary, so the employee can pay for a higher medical deductible. And so the argument continues in blaming and counter-blaming while the middle class struggles to make a minimum salary.

Taken from the Courier Journal:  Inpatient care last year averaged $17,553, and insurance plans require people to pay a portion of that even after meeting their deductibles, up to an out-of-pocket maximum that can easily exceed $10,000 a year for families. Median household income in the U.S. is around $53,000, and the average American has less than $6,000 in savings, according to a 2012 report by Pitney-Bowes Software. A quarter have no emergency savings at all, Bankrate.com reported in June.

A little math for the middle class. If you subtract $17,553 from $53,000, you have $35,467 remaining. Now who can live on $35,467 a year? The solution is RAISE SALARIES, then everyone can afford government healthcare. This is akin to the government passing benefits for all the citizens, and then asking them to pay for their own benefits that they passed. Legislators mistakenly believe that business is flush with profits to pay for whatever they legislate. Second, Legislators are currently talking about "FAIR SHARE". This interprets to HIGHER TAXES.

Let me get this right. Someone in Washington wants to tax me more to pay for the increase in the size of government, then do me a favor by giving to me special benefits that I'm to take from my hard earned profits. If I want special benefits, why don't I just pay for them myself? Because, Washington wants to take from successful businessmen, the "fat cats" of our society, and have them pay the unfortunate a share their business earnings.

I know a young man, he owns a lawn care business with two employees beside himself. The government wants to take money from him to pay for free healthcare for those two employees and more money to increase their wages. So using the $17,500 inpatient care average, my friend would have to pay an additional $35,000 annually for healthcare. Then he would have to pay an additional $2.85 per hour for each employee. For two employees, that is an additional $11,856 annually. This amounts to $46,856 in additional expenses. Do you think this small businessman will be able to keep his employees and pay these additional fees? This is why businessmen are not rushing to increase salaries. Several small businessmen have told me that they are letting their employees go and working the business by their self. Why? Because the small increase they would get with employees doesn't warrant the financial responsibility of having employees.

Well what about large corporate organizations. They have plenty of money to give away! Put yourself in CEO's place. McDonald's or Walmart. Walmart employs around 2.1 million people. Using our magic increase of  $5,928 per person, Walmart expenses would increase a whopping $12 BILLION. Current profits, after expenses are around $17 BILLION. So what, if they only made $5 BILLION. The problem is that these numbers are so large, that we can't really understand them. In a down market, Walmart looses millions each week. Without CAPITAL, Walmart would quickly collapse. J.C. Penney, Sears, and Montgomery Ward are all examples of how a down season in sells can bring a company to the edge of disaster.

SUMMARY

A combination of poor economic conditions, market manipulation by the government, demands that businesses carry their "fair share", and government healthcare burden, have left small business men with uncertainty about the future of the economy. Both wise investors and business men are reluctant to invest fully into an economy that is still in recovery. There is a disconnect between what the government says is a "healthy recovery" and what business people see as "economic reality".

ECONOMIC WEATHER

The economic weather will be partly cloudy to stormy. The sun will shine through from time to time, followed by heavy down pours, flooding, and possible tornadoes. I don't think we will see clear weather in 2015 and the threat of a bear market will be with us throughout the year.


(Note: the above article is for entertainment only and not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Bubbly analyst remind the small investors that even though stocks are at an all time high, it is still a good time to put all your money in stocks. There seems to be no trepidation about the Greek Stock Index dropping 18% in one day, or a barrel of oil dropping from $120+ per barrel to $56 per barrel. Even professor Schiller who developed the Schiller Price Indicator, can't acknowledge that his own indicator is flashing that it is time to get out of the market. <http://finance.yahoo.com/video/scary-market-indicator-shiller-121400665.html>

Looking For Head & Shoulders

We are looking for the forming of a head and shoulders pattern and that pattern seems to be shaping up in such a way that March through May would be the target for a downturn. Now I am speculating here and that is why you are reading a BLOG. Blogs are entertaining and serve no purpose other than entertainment and that is especially true of this blog. So let me speculate a little.

Everyone knows that the market could continue to go up or could suddenly collapse at any moment, but several patterns do seem to be prime patterns. Most recessions begin with a Head & Shoulders pattern.

The Fed-eral-Reserve Is On Its Way!  

The Republicans are empowered by a populace that is exhausted from government debt. Obama has already spent more than any previous president, initiated programs that will increase debt and limit incomes for years into the future, and with Fed stimulus programs increasing our national debt to even higher extremes, people are DEMANDING that the spending stop. This puts the Federal Reserve in even a more difficult position, opening the way for recession to finally unfold. Yet, it is likely that pressure will be put on the Fed to continue limited stimulus programs to advert any market downturns.

House of Cards

Recessions in Japan, Greece, Russia, and China are not without consequence. Other markets are also teetering on the edge of recession and likely to fall into recession. Can the U.S. continue a vibrant recovery in the face of world-wide recession?

I think you know the answer to this question. No!

Ken Moraif wrote: The international monetary fund (IMF) cut its 2014 world growth forecast for the sixth time since January 2013. Europe, Japan and China all seem to be on the verge of recession and are fighting to create growth.

All of their respective central banks are ramping up the process of printing untold trillions of dollars in an effort to stimulate their economies. As we saw last week, the Market will receive this very favorably. The Market doesn't care whether the growth is real or artificial it only cares that there is some.

The prospect of massive government stimulus programs in all of those economies will most likely make the Market go up over the next few months. The problem, of course, is that you can pump adrenaline into a sick person and he could get up and run around the room, but once the adrenaline wears off, the patient is still sick. This may very well be the case when governments around the world run out of stimulative options and all we are left with is a mountain of debt.

When that happens, the Markets will no longer be happy and we could see a significant correction.

If you are concerned about the market setting all-time highs and look below you and see nothing but the abyss, let me say that I agree with you. The rise since the end of the last bear market is historic. You and I both know that the higher the market goes, the further down it could fall.

Couple this with the fact that the longer we go between bear markets the more severe the bear market is when it finally gets here and we have the recipe for market volatility. We average a bear market every three and a half years. It has now been over seven years since the last one started. We are now 42 months overdue.

Since 2012, copper prices have collapsed while stock prices have soared. Since the price of copper moves with the price of stocks, it has been my belief that the market collapsed in May of 2012. May of 2012 was when Bernake began his major stimulus program which kept stock prices from collapsing, but the economy never really ignited as hoped.

If you are to remain in the market, be agile. He who gets out first, saves the value of his portfolio.

(Note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in ANYWAY as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

One of the major questions is who will take the next step? Who will invest the BIG MONEY? You may ask, "What are you talking about?" Well, the market has rebounded, but with very low volumes of trading. This means that investors are shy. The investors I am really talking about are not speculators or traders, but the "big boys", the institutional investors.

What we are seeing is an uncertainty in the market. There is talk of growth and a robust recovery, but no one really wants to get into the market at these high prices. Mark Hulbert interviewed Hayes Martin and found some very interesting ideas. You can read more about it for yourself at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-stock-market-is-weaker-than-it-looks-2014-11-07?siteid=yhoof2

Here are some highlights. First point, the market is weaker than it looks; second point, the recent rally is unsustainable; third point, investors are not committing to the market, there is no strong buying conviction. Hulbert writes:
,
A most telling weakness, according to Martin, is that the market never exhibited the kind of explosive upside action that is typically seen “early in a strong market advance off important lows.” For example, there has not been even one session in which trading volume for issues rising in price was at least nine times greater than the volume for declining issues — a so-called “9-to-1 up day,” as this phenomenon was dubbed by the late Marty Zweig.

This is noteworthy because, as Zweig wrote in his 1986 investment classic “Winning on Wall Street,” “every bull market in history, and many good intermediate advances, have been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9-to-1 up days.”

Martin suggest: Martin’s best guess? We’re not at the beginning of an intermediate-term advance that takes the broad market averages to significantly higher levels. Instead, the recent rally is merely “an interim bottom within a longer-developing top.”

I would agree with this idea, Our five-year Bull Market is long in the tooth and likely to collapse; stocks are over bought and over priced; QE is being abandoned because of the small affect on the market and the development of new market bubbles; and the likelihood of near term bear is very near. I have suggested that we could see recessionary pressures return in January, but it could be pushed into April of 2015. Finally, some are pointing to a more positive political climate with the GOP taking power, but since 2012 our market has been like no other. Everything you see in this economy is artificial and without real economic advances, no amount of money printing will produce a vibrant economy.

(Note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in any way for investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Dejavu, here we are, repeating the mantra, "Everything is OK, everything is OK, the economy is taking-off, the economy is strong and vibrant!"  Now a month ago, we were reassured by analysts and the Federal Reserve that we had the strongest of economies and were well on the way to recovery, only to loose most of the year's gains in stocks. A month ago, even the most positive analysts admitted that the S&P 500 at 2,000 was an indication that stocks were OVERPRICED. So with an abrupt decline in the stock market in October and now a rapid rise in stock prices and the S&P 500 now moving near 2,000 again, where are the clamoring voices warning that stocks are now OVERPRICED.

I'm hoping you are understanding what I am saying. Not a whole lot has changed in a month. The stock market blipped down and then back up. If we continue getting daily rises of over 1% in the indexes, we will soon break all-time highs for the stock indexes, yet again. Finally, in my logic, if stocks were over-valued a month ago and they return to the same heights as last month, then are stocks not still overvalued?

So let's be clear, stocks are still overvalued. Second, copper prices are not moving with the market... copper prices are deflated, petroleum is deflated, gold & silver is deflated.... but the stock market is growing? This isn't the way an economy moves.

So what is going wrong here? Bob Pisani wrote: The market internals do not reflect great strength. We are barely above break-even on the advance/decline line. Because the economic environment is so poor in Europe, the U.S. stock market is the only game in town. You are not the only one speculating in this market. There are desperate European investors, who are in declining economies; and they are coming into the U.S. market for the same reason you have moved your money from cash or bonds into STOCKS. 

So what happens in a competitive race to buy stocks.... they go up higher and higher, until stocks are so overvalued, that no one is interested in buying them. Stocks have been overvalued and overbought. With these new investors seeking gains, stocks may well continue to rise; not because of increasing VALUE, but because of increasing PRICE.  For example: You might pay anywhere from .99 cents to $1.25 for bottled water. But when the price of bottle water rises to $25.00, I will likely go look for a water fountain or bring my own water from home. 

Value is different than PRICE. The value of a stock is what a person would reasonably pay for the growth of a company. Let's say that a company, after expenses, returns $20 million this year, and if it continues on its current path of growth, next year it will return $30 million, and the next year $45 million etc. Then you would value the growth of its stock at what it will reasonably return if the company continues on a path of future growth. But if our company returned $30 million and someone offered to pay a PRICE for the stock at a $60 million valuation, I might not see how that company could possibly grow that much over the next year. I would be reluctant to buy-in and would see that stock as OVERVALUED. 

Real GDP has been under 2% a year since 2008, yet stock indexes have grown 140%. Divide 140% by 5 years and you get 25% annually. Is it possible that stocks have really grown 25% annually in a non-vibrant economy. In vibrant periods of growth, we have seen about at 12% annual average growth in the stock market. So, 12 times 5 years equals, 60%. Whether you see the growth as 140% or 120%, that rate of growth in a economically sick market can only be described as miraculous. Something is wrong, something doesn't smell right, look right, or act right. Regardless the opportunities for profits, what you are seeing is a sucker's game. 

A CNBC correspondent named TRADER went after Peter Schiff, telling him that he needed to admit that he was wrong about gold and needed to apologize. However your feel about this confrontation and attack against Schiff, in a few months, Schiff could be proven more right than wrong about gold. I am not particularly a GOLD BUG, but pushing into six years of remarkable growth in stocks just doesn't seem possible or likely. 

My warning is to just be real and realistic. If something doesn't seem right, it probably isn't.

(Note: the above information is not to be used in anyway as investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

We are being reminded that we have entered a robust recover and that there are NO RISKS in putting your life savings into stocks. In fact, we are told, there is no better opportunity to invest because stocks are so amazingly low after our recent decline. This is the magic reset that will allow us yet another year of great profits in the bright future of stocks.

Now all of this GOOD NEWS, must be weighed in the light of one major fact. We are still on stimulus. The government is still printing money.... oops, providing liquidity to the market. But the fact is that our economy is on life support and when it is removed, stocks will tank. To reassure us, the Federal Reserve says that they will be around to keep and eye on things and will not reduce stimulus if the market shows weakness.

Most people I know, don't believe that! When was the last time government made a great effort to save the common investor? They save BANKS, because they are too big to fail.  But the little investor has no friends to save their investment, and in truth, there is a plan to redistribute their wealth. (see Robert Shiller, advisor to Democratic Presidents) He says, that this has been in the works for years. Just as in the Great Depression, the little investors are the ones who will experience the greatest hurt in a sudden fall in stock prices.

So as stocks rebound, one has to ask the question, WHY? The EU is on the verge of collapse, the economy in China is slowing, Amazon's profits fell this quarter, Sears is closing 100 stores and letting go over 5,000 employees, soaring costs of housing is shutting out homebuyers, Ford Co. profit falls, more Ebola cases arrive in the U.S., the middle class continue to lose their buying power, corporations continue a move toward part-time employees to avoid payment for employee healthcare, real inflation continues to climb, while most middle class Americans have seen a decrease in income.

During the 2008 recession, many people lost their jobs. They had years of experience, giving them seniority. But by 2010, business culture had changed. Cutting the senior positions, allowed corporations to hire MORE EMPLOYEES to PART-TIME positions, saving the corporations the cost of healthcare. Furthermore, many corporations stopped their pension plans and moved to 401Ks that would now be owned by the employee. The corporation would provide matching funds to the 401K, but the employee would now be responsible for their own investment. The corporation would no longer be responsible for a pension fund that might be underfunded years later.... the employee would now be the only person to take the risk of a falling market, the employee would catch the falling knife.

So imagine having worked for 15 years, getting maximum pay, and then being "let go". Thinking that you could still get the same pay for your years of experience, you seek other companies to hire you. But you find that the only jobs offered are ENTRY LEVEL and PART-TIME. You still need to survive, you still need a salary. So you take the entry level part-time job. You are now making half as much as your earned two years earlier. Should I mention, that Obama-Care is the only source of healthcare insurance and the original promises of keeping your own doctor, and a $4,000 deductible has grown to $6,000 deductible. You pay $6,000 per person before insurance kicks in. A family of four could be out $24,000 in medical expenses before coverage begins. The average income in the U.S. has been $52,000 per year. Now that average income has fallen to around $48,000 to $49,000.  Subtract $24,000 and your are near poverty level.

Robust economy, uhh, no! Possibly in the imagination of some politicians and economists, but in real life, we seem light years away from a robust economy. Don't invest blindly. Understand that in the near future, we will return to a failing stock market and it won't be pretty.

(note: the above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)

 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

I should be humored by the "big mouthed", "over confident" analysts who are now ringing their hands and scurrying around in sheer panic. This is the way a market crashes; it is unpredictable and unforseen. Far too much confidence has been placed in central banks (the Federal Reserve). They can bolster markets for a while, but eventually even the game players realize that they are being played and everyone loses confidence in the government hype. EXCEPT.... EXCEPT.... EXCEPT the poor middle-class fool who put his hope in the investment adviser dream-maker. The poor middle-class fool has been sold the bill of goods that the wisdom of his financial adviser in placing them into a buy and hold investment will perform the best in the long run. The problem is that study after study has shown that since the year 2000, that kind of investment strategy has failed.

We Break this Article for a Moment of Panic

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi said: "Consumers have pulled back, pulled back big. It's a little scary out there," Manufacturing data for the New York region also showed a slowdown, with the New York Fed's Empire State index plunging to 6.2 percent in October after hitting a five-year high last month. "Whatever the data is telling us ... it's kind of hard to swallow. Exports were at a record in August. Unemployment is coming straight down. I'm mystified by the data," Rupkey said.

Back to the Article

The Dalbar Study and many other analysts have pointed to major changes in stock investment over the past 14 years. When financial advisers sell their products.... and that is what they are doing.... they always take a clip of the seasons of the most rosy returns. If, they say, you had put $10,000 in XYG FUND in 1983, you would have gained blah blah percent. They are selecting that period because it shows a season of the best returns. If they say, "If you had invested $10,000 over the past three years, look at how much you would have gained.", they are using a the rapid growth in the stock market to fool you into thinking that future years will do the same. Think STIMULUS! The government has been causing that growth in stocks. The government has been trying to create a WEALTH EFFECT. There is no valid robust economy, the hard working, middle class fools have been duped by the young, bonus driven brokers and financial advisers preying on the uninformed. And when the market falls, the high flying sells team that misinformed you, will take their millions and retire in Costa Rica at 38 years of age. 

Getting Your Feet Back On the Ground

I am settling-in for a possible rebound and then a serious collapse in the economy. I don't know that the time is NOW, but it is soon. If you have made 15% or 20% returns since 2012, sell and cement your gains. I think there is rough financial weather ahead in the next six months. I expect a rebound until the end of the year, but that doesn't have to happen when you consider that the market actually collapsed in 2012. (See previous blogs and copper prices)

If you have made money, now is the time to take profits and run. Yamada said, "I'd rather be out of the market, wishing I was in; than be in the market, wishing I was out!" 

(The above article is for entertainment purposes ONLY, and is not to be used as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Some people have read in my yawn, that I'm somewhat disinterested in everyone's losses over the past few weeks.  Well, that's just unfair. In my last blog, I reported that in May of 2012 there was a well formed "head and shoulder's" pattern waiting to exert itself upon the market. Bernanke answered  that threat with months of bond buying at the costs of trillions of dollars. The clear cut result of that bond buying, stimulus, liquidity, or money printing was the stock market rocketing to new heights, while copper fell to new lows. If you are a trader, you will already know that copper moves in concert with stocks and can be used like a "canary-in-a-mine" to show the health of stocks. Listen, the canary has been dead since May of 2012.

The canary in the mine, that stopped singing in 2012, is simply showing us that the robust economy we thought we had is a mirage, a figment of our imagination. The reality lies with the descending price of copper.

A More Truthful Season?

You may ask: Is the Federal Reserve moving us into a more truthful season of economic reality?  The answer is NO! The FED has printed money at such a pace, that there are real concerns about inflationary impact. No one would argue that inflation is rising; yet with the failing economy in Europe, the dollar looks remarkably strong. I used the word, MIRAGE. What you see as economic reality is not real. When Japan and Europe begin the very shallowest of recoveries, the U.S. Dollar will fall like a rock and the foolishness of stimulus will show itself in a devalued dollar.

Patient on Life Support

No one.... absolutely no one, would argue that if the Federal Reserve removed all stimulus at this very moment, we would solidly and immediately fall into a RECESSION/DEPRESSION. This is inarguable! Without stimulus, the patient would die. (PERIOD)

Why then, are our political leaders talking about the robust economy they created? They revel in the declining unemployment numbers, while those employed are only part-time or at the bottom of the pay-scale. This SLACK as the FED calls it, is worrisome and reflects the economic sickness present in our system.

A New Head and Shoulders Pattern?

With a new weakness appearing in our market.... in spite of the continued FED stimulus, there is concern about technical indicators in stocks that would foretell the end of the Bull Market.  Here is what seems to be forming:

Looking at the current S&P 500, it appears that there is a head and shoulders pattern unfolding. I am projecting that it could be at the beginning of 2015, after investors mistakenly think that a market correction will result in a buying opportunity.

Changes to the Projection

The FED could aggressively increase bond buying to bolster the market once again. Yellen has suggested that she is not timid about more stimulus and Peter Schiff, James Rickards, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and other perma bears have suggested that the FED would do so. I do suggest that you go to YOUTUBE and watch the analysis of James Rickards in "The Death of Money". Though Rickards analysis may be more theoretical, you should be prepared with an understanding of how things could unfold.

Governments are devoted to making their citizens believe that taxes are low, the economy is improving, and their dollar is strong. If it is within their power, they will keep the economic ball rolling.

The Problem

The problem is that there is no such thing as an eternal bull market. Given time, every Bull Market will collapse. Our market did so in May of 2012. Instead of allowing a market correction, Bernanke implemented a course of action that has prolonged this Bull Market for an unheard of almost five years. Economists will tell you that there have been such Bull Markets in the past, BUT THEY OCCURRED IN A ROBUST MARKET EXPANSION. There is no such expansion presently, and no hope of such an expansion in the near future.  Let me say it again, SMOKE AND MIRRORS. What you see as a robust economy, ISN'T! The economy is on life support. This is a time for defensive positions.

(note: the above information is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for investment purposes in any way.)