Today's Market
by Dr Invest

My Investments

My investment continues its UPs and DOWNs. I have a STOP-SELL set for each stock at 6% below the purchase price. Below are the three stocks I have chosen during what I hope will be a Christmas Rally. If my losses exceed 6%, the stocks will automatically sell and I'll drink my hot chocolate in a corner by myself; but if I get the 6 to 8% return I hope to get, I will put another pice of cake on my plate and giggle a loud, Ho! Ho! Ho!

Back to reality here:

                                                               BUY                                        NINE DAYS LATER
FDO (Family Dollar)              $58.8193                                         loss 2.66%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                $79.20                                             loss 1.20%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)   $24.81                                             gain 6.85%
                                                                                                                2.99% Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of 2.99% in the overall stock porfolio after trading fees. I had expected better from the DOLLAR STORE STOCKS. As the market moved higher today at the report of increased retail sales, I was surprised the the Dollar Store Stocks did not dramatically rise. As you can see, I am no where near a 6% loss on any one stock, but my safety net remains in place just in case the market turns ugly.

(note: The above information is not to be used for any finanical advice, see your personal financial advisor before making any decisions regarding your finances.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Welcome to the stock market. This week the DOW has fallen almost 400 points in one day and in the last two days, returned about as much. If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.


Back to reality here:

                                                                                                 BUY                                FRIDAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                   $58.8193                        loss 1.06%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                     $79.20                           gain 1.03%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)        $24.81                           gain 8.38%
                                                                                                   8.35% Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of 1.35% in the overall stock porfolio after trading fees. I want you to journey with me in this trade during the end of 2011. By following my blog each day, you will sense what it is like to wait for a stock to become profitable. All of my stocks gained today, but previous losses had to be absorbed. FDO or Family Dollar Store has not yet broken even. The goal is to see all of the stocks become profitable.

I am not disappointed with how the week ended, but hope at we move toward Christmas, the Dollar Store stocks will ignite and meet my goal of earning 6% before the end of the year on the total investment I have made into stocks.

With the fears of the Euro collapse abating because of recent political resolutions in Italy and Greece, it seems that the way is open for the market in the U.S. to move upward.

(note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used to make finanical decisions.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest
Today the market returned a very shallow bounce of a little less than 1%. The stock I chose didn't blossom, but in such a pathetic market I really didn't expect more. Greece and Italy have proven a drag to any upward momentum in the market. The overall negative feeling that Greece and Italy have created in the market has elevated the VIX. (the fear index)

With the likelihood that Italy's debt will wreck the Euro and a default is only months away, the fear is that the world economy will slip into a double-dip recession. I still have enough conviction about a Christmas Rally, not to sell and run. Of course, most importantly, that conviction is only 6% deep because if my purchase price of these stocks fall 6% below the purchase price they will automatically sell.

Because repetition is the price of learning and your success in trading is based upon RULES, the first rule is: "Don't Lose Money!" The second rule is: "Never buy a stock without determining how much you will allow yourself to loose!" (You do that buy placing a STOP-SELL on the stock you purchased.) You want to maintain CONTROL of your LOSSES and your PROFITS. Remember that successful trading is about money management.

Most Financial Advisors DO NOT ACTIVELY MANAGE YOUR INVESTMENTS, but actively manange their FEES and PROFITS from your investments. I learned of a court case in which a financial advisor was sued for pointing a client to the financial instruments which returned the highest fees to the advisor. The client's claim was the Financial Advisor has a fiduciary reponsibility to represent the client's interests first. Ney, my friend. The court ruled in the favor of the Financial Advisor, thus re-affirming that the Advisor could move the client's money toward any instrument he wished eventhough it negatively impacted the client with higher fees. Listen to me, your Financial Advisor can charge you management fees eventhough his management of your money had a negative result. Is there another profession that you can enter, where you can damage someone financially and still charge them 2% annually for managing their life savings? (2% of $500K=$10,000 annually. 200 clients X $10,000=$2,000,000 annually. Average number of clients for a financial advisor is 200-500. Now you know the rest of the story. In fairness, office, salespersons, accountants, secretaries, and licenses come out of the 1 1/2 to 2 million. Finanical and Wealth Consultant's salaries can range between $90k to $120k. A senior consultant can make more depending upon the clients he has acquired. )

By using a BROKERAGE ACCOUNT, selecting your own investment instruments, and contolling your losses, you can avoid the FRONT-END and REAR-END fees and QUARTERLY fees charged by an Advisor. Over a ten year period, even a small savings of $200k that is managed by an advisor can amount to $43,799.00. Double the $43,799 to $87,597 if you have a nest egg of $400k.

Back to reality here:

                                                      BUY                THURSDAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                 $58.8193              loss 1.83%    
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                   $79.20                 loss 1.75%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)      $24.81                 gain 5.16%
                                                                                       1.58% Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of  1.58% in the overall stock porfolio.

The return not particularly remarkable after four days, but still afloat after one of the largest one day drops in 2011.

(Note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and should not be considered financial advice.) 

Today's Market
by Dr Invest

Look, I know this is what you have been waiting for. Now that shame has come upon, I humbly acknowlege what everyone already knows: "The market is not predictable."

If you have been following my blog, you will know that I purchased three stocks: FDO, DLTR, and CATM. Today was a SLAM as the DOW sunk 400 points and barely climbed upward toward the end of the trading day.

That is the very reason, that I use a 6% stop-sell whenever I buy a stock... so I can preserve my capital.

                                                         MONDAY    TUESDAY         WEDNESDAY
FDO (Family Dollar)                        lost .08%      gained   .08%        lost 2.41%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                         lost .56%       gained 1.43%        lost 1.43%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)      gained 1.08%      gained 8.22%        lost 3.78%
                                                                .44% gain           9.73% gain       7.62 loss  2.11%  total gain

As of today, I have gained a total of  2.11% in the overall stock porfolio.

I admit, this is exciting. How will this investment end? Will I see a recovery by the weekend or will my stocks sell? As an investor, I have a conviction that the market will rally... but only  a 6% conviction. Another 3% loss and my seasonal investing will be brought nearly to an end.

This is how I have chosen to trade, I follow my rules regardless of what I think the market will do. If the market falls more than 6%, my stock is sold.... if the market continues to rise, my stock is hold.

(Note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be considered as investment advice.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest


Today's market started in the negative as the market comptemplated Italy and its political woes. Before the end of the day, a promise of resignation by the Italian Prime Minister brought a rebound in the market. Friday, I invested into FDO, DLTR, and CATM. I am taking a risk that the EuroTribe will workout their debt relief plan and that we will see a seasonal rally during the last two months of this year. Here are the results at the end of the trading session on Tuesday.


YESTERDAY                                                                    TODAY

FDO (Family Dollar)                   lost .08%                       gained   .08%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                     lost .56%                       gained 1.43%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs) gained 1.08%                       gained  8.22%
                                                            .44% gain                            9.73% gain    10.17% total gain

As of today, I have gained a total of  10.17% in the overall stock porfolio.

I have chosen a 6% stop-sell. If the stocks continue to grow, I will move my stop-sell behind the closing price.

I have said that it is not the opinons of analysts or politicians that determine the trend of the market. The market is the sole determinate of its price.

What is key to seeing gains in your portfolio is "active portfolio management".  Active portfolio management is not "timing the market" nor "day trading".   Active portfolio management is OBSERVING, IDENTIFYING TRENDING STOCKS or BONDS, then BUYING or SELLING both bonds and stocks when there is a clear trend change. The purchase of STOCKS or BONDS is based upon strict rules. When the rules are followed, the opportunities for success is enhanced.

Please note, that at a 6% stop-sell, CATM would presently return 3% profit if the market turned down. That means that at this time CATM is profitable. I would like to see CATM continue an upward trend with the a return of 15 to 20% . 

There seems to be some return in FDO and DLTR and I would settle for a mere 6% over the next two months. So here's the truth, in such a volatile market, you can't really predict where the price will be two days from now. You can hope that it will continue to climb until the end of the week an set your stop-sell price. To just break even, your stock's price will need to rise about 7%. The exception would be if you simply wanted to sell the stock once it had climbed 4% above the purchase price. In that case, your 6% stop-sell is the safety net, but if a market downtrend is looming, you sell the stock for the best price you can get.

Better yet, make good judgments in the first place and hope for gains that can let you move your trailing stop (stop-sell) to a place of profitablity.

(note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used as financial advice under any circumstances.)

Today's Market
by Dr Invest


I can't say that the water is fine. In fact, it is just a bit tepid. Friday, I invested into FDO, DLTR, and CATM. I had anticipated that Greece would work out their problems to open the way for the EuroPlan to be implemented. All that I need is two months of seasonal growth to see a 6 to 8% gain in carefully selected stocks.

What I had not anticipated was the concern of the market that next player in the EuroTribe, Italy, might default on their debt. Overall, we started low, buy by the end of the day had made significant gains with the DOW having risen .71%. Here is the return on the individual stock picks.

FDO (Family Dollar)              lost        .08%
DLTR (Dollar Tree)                lost        .56%
CATM (Cardtronics ATMs)   gained  1.08%
                                                               .44%    Total Gain

As of today, I have gained a total of .44% in the overall stock porfolio.

Over the coming week, we will revisit this initial investment. Key to your success in the market is limiting your losses. This means that when you buy a stock, you also determine the amount you are willing to loose. It my case, I have chosen a 6% stop-sell. If the stocks continue to grow, I will move my stop-sell behind the closing price.

I have said that it is not the opinons of analysts or politicians that determine the trend of the market. The market is the sole determinate of its price. Markets are irrational and humans are poor at determining what the market will do.

One of the top market gurus, has been right only 60% of the time. Most are right about the market only 30% of the time. This "human error" is one of the reasons for a BUY and HOLD philsophy.  Timing the market is a very poor method for investment.

Active portfolio management is not "timing the market" nor "day trading". Active portfolio management is OBSERVING, IDENTIFYING TRENDING STOCKS or BONDS, then BUYING, and SELLING both bonds and stocks when a clear trend changes. The purchase of STOCKS or BONDS is based upon strict rules for the purchase and sell of equities. When the rules are followed, the opportunities for success is enhanced.

(note: The above article is soley for entertainment purposes and not to be used as financial advice under any circumstances.)




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Today's Market
by Dr Invest



Friday, at the close of the market, I purchased three stocks. CATM, FDO, DLTR which are Cardtronics ATMs, Family Dollar Store, and Dollar Tree Stores. The real question here is: Why?

The market is indeed irrational. All the surrounding facts would compel a person to move all his investments to CASH. Yet, here I am, buying into the market. Quite honestly, the market doesn't care what I think. The market is the market, it moves up and it moves down. So my purchase of stocks can't be based upon what someone said about the national debt or a rise in commodities. These gurus will sell you their StockReports for a mere $250 per month, but they will likely be the only ones to profit from their advice because they have your subscription. The best gurus are only right about 63% of the time and the average stock guru is right only a little over 30% of the time. In the stock market, the market is right 100% of the time. It is the market that determines the value of the stock.

So, here's my interpretation of the market. Reports have shown that during this Christmas season, the dollar stores will dominate. With a number of negative factors that would normally influence the market to decline, it has only continued an upward trend. In October, the market climbed more than all the other months combined. I call this "kinetic energy" waiting to be released in a seasonal bull market. Others may call this buying pressure or market momentum, but the market is showing signs it wants to move higher. The recent reports of companies profits is a postive sign for an uptrend. Finally, we are in what is commonly called, "The earning season". I look closely at seasonal trends and when the stocks are most likely to rise. (October to January)

Finding an Entry Point

The real challenge is finding an entry point when the market is advancing so forcefully. Friday closed with great turmoil over whether the Prime Minister of Greece could lead his government into the Eurotribe's bailout plan. You will remember that the same Prime Minister said, "I need to call for a referendum vote by the Greek people." After the G-20 summit, he quickly reversed himself, calling for the Greek representatives to move forward on the Euro Bailout Plan.

A casual observer could see that something happened at the G-20 summit, that convinced the Prime Minister that the Euro Bailout Plan was an imperative. The market was nervous on Friday that the Prime Minister of Greece, would not be able to put together a coalition to accept the EuroPlan.

So at the close of the market on Friday, I began to see the market decline the last thirty minutes of the trading day. THIS WAS THE PERFECT ENTRY POINT. After making my stock purchases, I could see the market rising the last 5 minutes of the trading day, along with my purchased stocks.

Taking a Calculated Risk

The only thing that was still lacking was the good news that Greece has approved the EuroPlan. Even with the approval, it does not guarantee that the market will rise, but it does improve the chance that the markets will not be shaken during this "earning season".

Here's the news report for Sunday evening:
           Elena Becatoros and Demetris Nellas, Associated Press, On Sunday November 6, 2011, 6:48 pm EST

ATHENS, Greece (AP) -- Greece's embattled prime minister and main opposition leader agreed Sunday to form an interim government to ensure the country's new European debt deal, capping a week of political turmoil that saw Greece face a catastrophic default that threatened its euro membership and roiled international markets.

This is really all that I need to see. My chances for the overall market to continue in an uptrend is greatly improved. I think that my selected stocks will also continue in an uptrend. What is important to me, is that I feel good about the investment. Questions remain about whether Greece can implement the austerity programs needed to satisfy the EuroPlan. Monday, the market will interpret how it sees the news out of Greece, but the EuroPlan will likely satisfy the markets until February of 2012.

Protecting the Investment

I will repeat this mantra again, and again. When you buy a stock, put a stop-sell on that stock. My suggestion is to set your loss at 6 to 8% depending on the volatility of the stock. You potential loss is only 6 to 8%, but if the stock continues on an uptrend, you move your stop-sell behind the closing price. The goal is to pay for your trading fees and see a return on your investment. Don't sneeze at a 2% gain after trading fees, that is better than what you would get at a bank.

Should your stock slow in the force of its uptrend or begin to move sideways (consolidation), move the stop-sell as close as possible to the closing price without tripping the stop-sell. Any radical drop in the price of your stock will trigger your stop-sell.

Calculations

DLTR (Dollar Tree) was purchased for $79.20 per share. Multiply 7920 *.06 = 475.2  (6% of $79.20 is $4.75.) I now subtract 4.74 - 79.20 = 74.46 remains. (My stop-sell is placed at $74.46)

I chose DLTR because I believe it will advance, not decline in value. But if I am wrong, I won't need to make a decision to sell, because I already have made that decision. If I am right in my judgment, I will advance the stop-sell 6% behind the closing price until the stock rises high enough to produce a gain in the investment.

(Note: The above information is soley for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered under any circumstances as investment advice.)