Today's Market
by Dr Invest
Let's start with the good news first. Our bond ETFs, TIP and BND performed well today. We moved from 2.04% total gains for 1/3 of our total portfolio invested in BOND ETFs at closing yesterday to 2.24% total gains at closing today. No, it isn't like gold rising 5% in one day but for a low risk investment, even a 4% gain by the end of the year would be respectable. As I said in Monday's blog, Jeff Macke said that on average hedge funds had gained only 3.9% by mid-September of 2012. I explained why the ideal is a perception that is never reached. And the idea of investors and hedgefund managers beating the S&P seldom occurs according to the Harvard Business School.
As stocks continue a decline over the short-term it is easily possible that our bond ETFs could outperform the average gains from a hedge fund. Since it is bad luck to count your gains before they occur, we wait patiently for the stocks bloated by speculators, to lose some of their value.
Gold
Gold is a strange investment. It is a commodity. Not much different than copper, silver, wheat, oil, etc. When the dollar strengthens, for each dollar, you can buy more gold. So gold prices fall. This is what has happened over the past year. The EURO has fallen against the dollar, so the dollar has become stronger. This makes gold less valuable against the strong dollar. Now if the EURO regains strength, gold could soar as the value of the dollar falls. Looking at the chart below, gold has been falling over the past 13 days.
It has been suggested that gold needs to fall to around $1680 - $1660 before starting a rebound. Admittedly, I am no authority on gold, but I am watching the current movement in prices to purchase a 10% position in my portfolio.
THE IRAN FACTOR AND GOLD PRICES
Current tensions are high in the Middle East. Israel is threatening Iran, Iran is threatening the U.S., Syria is in civil strife, Libya radicals have struck the U.S. embassy, yet none of these factors have affected the price of gold. I do think that an attack against Iran by Israel would immediately affect markets worldwide. Stocks would collapse, and gold would immediately become a highly sought after medium. Disaster and fear are good for gold. The expectation that world-wide economic collapse is emminent, is good for gold prices. I think you get the picture here, gold is a contender in the face of conflict. The danger is that if the economy strengthens gold is likely to do what it did in the 80s, falling from nearly $594 per ounce to $272 at its low point. That is a 50% loss! There will be some gains you can keep, but losing 50% of your investment once the dollar re-strenghtens would not be unheard of.
Let me ask, are you strongly convicted that the dollar will fall in value? Remember the dollar is already at an all-time low. Look at the chart below:
As the dollar began to strengthen in March, gold turned down. Gold struggled until August as the strength of the dollar remained high. But when the dollar began to weaken against a strengthening EURO, gold began to immediately rise. Gold began to turn over as the dollar began to strengthen once again. I am thinking this is a temporary downturn in gold and it that gold will rebound as Bernanke continues to PRINT MONEY (through liquidity), devaluing the dollar.
by Dr Invest
Let's start with the good news first. Our bond ETFs, TIP and BND performed well today. We moved from 2.04% total gains for 1/3 of our total portfolio invested in BOND ETFs at closing yesterday to 2.24% total gains at closing today. No, it isn't like gold rising 5% in one day but for a low risk investment, even a 4% gain by the end of the year would be respectable. As I said in Monday's blog, Jeff Macke said that on average hedge funds had gained only 3.9% by mid-September of 2012. I explained why the ideal is a perception that is never reached. And the idea of investors and hedgefund managers beating the S&P seldom occurs according to the Harvard Business School.
As stocks continue a decline over the short-term it is easily possible that our bond ETFs could outperform the average gains from a hedge fund. Since it is bad luck to count your gains before they occur, we wait patiently for the stocks bloated by speculators, to lose some of their value.
Gold
Gold is a strange investment. It is a commodity. Not much different than copper, silver, wheat, oil, etc. When the dollar strengthens, for each dollar, you can buy more gold. So gold prices fall. This is what has happened over the past year. The EURO has fallen against the dollar, so the dollar has become stronger. This makes gold less valuable against the strong dollar. Now if the EURO regains strength, gold could soar as the value of the dollar falls. Looking at the chart below, gold has been falling over the past 13 days.
It has been suggested that gold needs to fall to around $1680 - $1660 before starting a rebound. Admittedly, I am no authority on gold, but I am watching the current movement in prices to purchase a 10% position in my portfolio.
THE IRAN FACTOR AND GOLD PRICES
Current tensions are high in the Middle East. Israel is threatening Iran, Iran is threatening the U.S., Syria is in civil strife, Libya radicals have struck the U.S. embassy, yet none of these factors have affected the price of gold. I do think that an attack against Iran by Israel would immediately affect markets worldwide. Stocks would collapse, and gold would immediately become a highly sought after medium. Disaster and fear are good for gold. The expectation that world-wide economic collapse is emminent, is good for gold prices. I think you get the picture here, gold is a contender in the face of conflict. The danger is that if the economy strengthens gold is likely to do what it did in the 80s, falling from nearly $594 per ounce to $272 at its low point. That is a 50% loss! There will be some gains you can keep, but losing 50% of your investment once the dollar re-strenghtens would not be unheard of.
Let me ask, are you strongly convicted that the dollar will fall in value? Remember the dollar is already at an all-time low. Look at the chart below:
As the dollar began to strengthen in March, gold turned down. Gold struggled until August as the strength of the dollar remained high. But when the dollar began to weaken against a strengthening EURO, gold began to immediately rise. Gold began to turn over as the dollar began to strengthen once again. I am thinking this is a temporary downturn in gold and it that gold will rebound as Bernanke continues to PRINT MONEY (through liquidity), devaluing the dollar.
This chart demonstrates the complete commitment our government has to continue the printing of money. While this gives governments leighweigh to pay past debts, it also increases inflation and strangles growth from high interest. So, prepare to protect your portfolio by getting 10% or even 20% of your portfolio in gold. By all means, do put a stop-sell/stop-loss on your investment to protect your potential losses. I will NOT be willing to lose 14% of my investment. I will look to buy when there is a gain possible and then to hold on to the gains.
(Note: The above article is for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice.)